How Unlikely Is War with North Korea?

At the Diplomat I do a bit of pushback on some recent posts from the Monkey Cage:

The recent false alert of a ballistic missile launch in Hawaii has put the United States (and the world) on edge, but some argue that the hype overstates the chances for war. In particular, two recent articles at the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog argue that news accounts are overestimating the chance for hostilities. A post by Elizabeth Saunders and Michael Horowitz suggests that press accounts have over-hyped the prospects of war with North Korea, while Dan Reiter argues that the chances for war are really quite low.