How the Pieces Fell Into Place

Good analysis of the failure of AHCA from JMM:

With this said, though, Lisa Murkowski’s vote was just as important. And she didn’t budge in the face of endless lobbying from her colleagues and tactless and perhaps counterproductive threats from the White House defined by patterns of abuse and bad-acting. Both mathematically and substantively, McCain’s headline moment was only possible because Murkowski and Collins were there, consistently over time and under withering pressure to fold. They persisted.

Murkowski deserves a huge, huge amount of credit for her vote. But to my mind, Collins is really the stand out here. Collins made clear pretty much from the beginning of this latest process that her vote was not available at all. Not for motions to proceed, not for votes on the various different flavors of Trumpcare. Her vote, though only one vote, made McConnell’s margin dramatically tighter and ultimately too tight. She was matched with Paul and Heller at one point and finally with Murkowski and McCain. But she was there throughout.

As we discussed at various points throughout this long process, now probably but not certainly concluded, legislative politics all comes down to narrowing margins so political pressure can be concentrated on weak points, marginal votes. Collins was the lever making pressure on others possible. It is important to note that once a legislator makes their intentions clear like that they suddenly matter much less in terms of press attention, pay offs, special deals and the like. Paradoxically, the most critical person gets the least glory and attention. Her consistent opposition was a big, big deal.

Nor should we forget the fact that 48 Democrats were consistently ‘nos’ to everything throughout. This seems obvious now, given how everything turned out. It was clearly easier to accomplish in a highly polarized climate and with a smaller caucus than it was in 2009. But in a caucus that stretches from Bernie Sanders to Joe Manchin don’t underestimate the difficulty. Chuck Schumer kept his caucus 100% locked down throughout. That is a big, big deal and easy to underestimate.

With all this, though, all of the politicians were like small boats on a vast ocean. They made critical choices – some to their honor, Murkowski, others to their infamy, Heller; they executed strategies. But small boats on a vast ocean, no matter how expert their navigation, are ultimately subject to and at the mercy of waves and winds and tides. And here, to extend our metaphor, the ocean and the tides were activists and non-activists making phone calls, showing up at townhalls, emailing, in some cases reaching beyond partisan affiliation to say in various ways that this was not right. The victory here is really millions, tens of millions of people who made noise on a sustained basis over months. Noise is comparatively easy; sustained noise over months is seldom possible. It is an immense and bracing victory for what was at the end of the day very much grass roots, organic activism. Republicans were finally unable to overcome the common sense logic that the true measure of reform in the public interest was how a piece of legislation helped or harmed how many people.

McCain’s vote was critical to ensure that the rest of the efforts weren’t in vain, and I’ll return to it later. But Collins being a clear no early was indeed huge. And Murkowski had to deal with the most pressure (much of it ham-handed) — I would guess because McConnell knew Collins had gubernatorial ambitions and was probably a lost cause. The corporate neoliberal Democrat Party providing zero votes in either chamber despite being pretty much the same as the Republicans is easy to take for granted but was critical — Pelosi was great as always, and Schumer is proving to be a worthy successor to Reid, and Manchin and Heitkamp proved yet again that any Democrat is vastly preferable to any Republican in this context. And, of course, it all starts at the grassroots — I won’t try to top Erik but that’s where to begin.