What happened last November
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Here’s (gift link) a very interesting data-driven conversation between Ezra Klein and David Shor about what happened last November. Shor runs a consulting outfit that did 26 million interviews of eight million voters/potential voters during the campaign, and that straightforwardly grapples with the problem that people who respond to pollsters in the current media environment are, to put it politely, idiosyncratic in various ways.
There’s a ton of fascinating stuff here, and I’ll just highlight a few takeaways:
Harris did just as well among liberal, moderate, and conservative white voters as Clinton did in 2016. What killed her was a collapse of support among non-white moderate and conservative voters. Harris did 23% worse among moderate Hispanic voters relative to Clinton! She did 11% worse among moderate Asian voters and 8% worse among conservative black voters.
The crazy-making thing is that Trump has become more explicitly white supremacist over the past eight years, but he didn’t do better among white voters in 2024 than in 2016 — all of his electoral gains have been among non-white voters. Even crazier is that his biggest gains in this subgroup is among naturalized citizens!
As you can see, there’s a very clear correlation between how many immigrants there were in a county and how much Trump’s vote share increased. In counties like Queens, New York, or Miami Dade, Florida, Trump increased his vote share by 10 percentage points, which is just crazy.
When we look at the precinct election results, we see that in immigrant communities of all races — particularly Hispanic and Asian communities. But Trump even increased his vote share in Haitian precincts in Florida.
Our best guess is that immigrants went from being a Biden plus-27 group in 2020 to a group that Trump narrowly won in 2024. This group of naturalized citizens makes up roughly 10 percent of the electorate.
A couple of other bottom line points here are that the gender gap among young voters was much much larger — more than twice as large — as it was among voters over 30. A majority of non-white young men actually voted for Trump, which means that non-white young men were more Trumpy than white men over 75!
Democrats clearly have a Jordan Petersen/Andrew Tate problem, because online spaces and especially social media spaces have become much more gender-segregated than the world at large. And this is clearly an international problem, not something unique to the US or the Democrats.
There’s a lot more to talk about here but I can’t right now.