Election of the weekend: Uruguay
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Programming note: this series went on an unannounced hiatus this spring, thus missing coverage of a good deal of this year’s incumbent-dumping excitement. My life took an unexpected twist that pulled me away from mundane things like blogging around that time, but things are getting back to something like normal now, so I plan to return to this series. No promises on comprehensiveness, but I’ll try.
The first round of the Uruguayan election was four weeks ago; on Sunday, the top-2 runoff for the presidency will take place. The contenders are Yamandu Orsi, representing the Broad Front, a coalition of left and center-left parties that governed Uruguay from 2005-2020, and Alvaro Delgado, representing the center-right National Party. The prospects for 2024’s anti-incumbent streak continuing seem decent; Orsi got 44% of the vote in the first round to Delgado’s 27% and the Broad Front made gains in both houses of the legislature, capturing a majority (16/30, up from 13) in the Senate while just missing one in the Chamber of Representatives (48/99, up from 42). Curiously, Uruguayan elections don’t offer the opportunity for ticket splitting; voters vote for a party, which attaches to the presidential candidate of that party as well as the PR lists for that party in both houses of the legislature. One reason to not be too confident in an Orsi victory is that the third place candidate, Andres Ojeda of the center-right Colorado Party, has endorsed Delgado and campaigned for him. Ojeda+Delgado’s vote share came within a hair of Orsi’s and several of the no-hope minor party candidates are quite a bit further right, so Orsi’s path from 44 to 50 isn’t an easy one. (Counting on a turnout surge is to get him there probably isn’t wise, as turnout was already at 90%; Orsi is more likely to be aided by some Colorado and minor party voters abstaining.) He’s been ahead in the polls, but typically only by a couple of points.
In many ways, Uruguayan politics seems out of place and time, bucking the global trend of resurgent populism and the South American trend of aspiring fascists and old-school leftists dominating and hapless centrists, technocrats, and neoliberals well behind. Both contenders in this race are fairly centrist and non-populist, and some of the other issues on the October ballot (voters rejected a plan to lower the retirement age, and a constitutional modification to increase police powers to conduct nighttime raids) demonstrated a disinterest in riding the angry populist wave:
Uruguay’s remarkably civilized presidential race has emerged as an exception in the region, defying trends of bitter division and democratic erosion seen across Latin America and in the United States. Far from mud-slinging and personal attacks, Uruguay’s contest focused on key issues such as rising crime, pension reform and the quality of schools. Uruguay’s center-left Broad Front alliance went into the election as the front-runner, reflecting a desire for a stronger social safety net in one of Latin America’s most expensive countries, where one in five children lives in poverty and an aging population has clamored for higher pensions.
The Broad Front has long taken a more moderate stance than other leftist governments in the region, such as in Venezuela and Bolivia. Orsi supports tax incentives to lure investors and as mayor sought to develop the country’s nascent high-tech scene.
Delgado — a buttoned-down former congressman who served as a senior aide to current President Luis Lacalle Pou — campaigned on pledges to continue the business-friendly policies of the president. Uruguay’s constitution does not allow for re-election, but Lacalle Pou’s approval ratings of some 50% have strengthened his party’s candidate.
In stark contrast to recent electoral contests in neighboring Argentina and Brazil, where politically polarized electorates raged against the status quo, Delgado’s campaign slogan was simply: “Re-elect a good government.”
Voting will take place on Sunday.