Governors to Senators

When we interviewed David Nir of Downballot on our podcast in September, one point he made is that popular governors from the opposite party of who dominates the state almost never win when they try to go to the Senate because voters do in fact understand the point that they are voting for who controls the body more than the individual. So Angela Alsobrooks seems to be running away from Larry Hogan in the battle for the Maryland Senate seat.

AS THINGS STAND, ALSOBROOKS is the favored candidate, even though Hogan’s popularity as a former governor has made for a tight race at times, in a state where registered Democrats more than double the numbers of registered Republicans. A Democratic loss in November would certainly register as a major missed opportunity for the party, and a huge steal for the GOP.

Hogan is a moderate conservative, by today’s metrics, and is pitching himself to voters as a “maverick” who will counter the current partisan divisiveness and stand up to extremists in the Republican Party when he disagrees. Republicans have spent about $34.9 million on ad time for his campaign, compared to $25.2 million for Democrats, The Washington Post reported on Tuesday. But Hogan will need to convince about one-third of Maryland Democrats to vote for a Republican, and to risk their party losing control of the Senate, while Alsobrooks doesn’t need much crossover support to win.

Some state and congressional Democrats, and Alsobrooks herself, say that she should not and will not take anything for granted. Some of the candidate’s own voters also remain somewhat wary. In September, the chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Gary Peters, said that Alsobrooks “needs to be known by folks across the state,” and Sen. Cardin added that “she’s not as well known as we’d like to have her.”

Yet Alsobrooks has maintained a lead in every poll since August. A survey released Wednesday, less than two weeks before Election Day, showed 40 percent of likely voters supporting Hogan, and 54 percent supporting Alsobrooks, a five-point gain since September, according to the poll by Emerson College Polling/DC News Now/The Hill. Another Washington Post/University of Maryland poll released Thursday showed that 52 percent of likely voters support Alsobrooks—a one-point increase since September—and 40 percent support Hogan.

This is great…with one exception, which is that it means someone like Andy Beshear will probably get crushed if he runs for a seat in Kentucky and Laura Kelly will probably face the same if she runs in Kansas. Given the undemocratic structure of the Senate, this phenomena means that our battles to hold onto the Senate is even harder. Of course I am extremely happy it applies in Maryland–Alsobrooks should be very good and Hogan’s fake moderation is beyond annoying. But we are going to have to figure out how to compete in a lot of states where under certain circumstances a Democrat can become a good governor.