I have a theory

This theory is about the oh I don’t know roughly 10% to 15% of the potential electorate whose individual members may or may not show up to vote, and may or may not vote for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris if they do show up to vote. Swing voters, to coin a phrase. Let’s meet one of them:

Of course, the crowd of committed Democrats at Spaziani and Williamson’s home was a safe bet for Walz. About a mile out, in downtown Easton, was a different story. I met a 26-year-old server at a local restaurant who said she was born and raised in Pennsylvania. The server, who asked me not to use her name, told me she hadn’t noticed many political ads, seeing only a few commercials on her Hulu streaming account. “Honestly, it feels like nobody is talking about the issues I care about,” she told me, which are U.S. food-quality standards and the economy. (The economy has been a major issue for both campaigns, though getting their message to voters who will make or break this race is clearly still a challenge.) The server said she also wants lawmakers to work on eliminating forever chemicals and banning food additives.

She told me that she had voted for Donald Trump in 2020. This time around, she said, she’d likely make her decision on Election Day, during the drive to the voting booth.

Let’s hope she notices that Trump Tarts now contain 50% more fascism in every eco-friendly box. These are are the people, Mandrake, upon whom the future of the Republic rests.

Peace on Earth.

Purity of Essence.

Anyway back to my theory. Quick, who became president in 1976? I bet you said “Jimmy Carter” to yourself. I mean that’s what I would say if you asked me at least until I thought about it for ten seconds, which is nine more seconds than any swing voter is going to dedicate to thinking about anything related to politics.

Which brings me to my theory.

2020 was a truly horrible year. In terms of day to day life, it was the worst year that the vast majority of Americans have ever experienced. Now my theory is: Many, perhaps even most, swing voters think (using this word loosely) that Joe Biden was president in 2020. I mean they don’t think that in the sense of thinking about the question: they just sort of feel that. It’s a vibe if you will. Because Joe Biden became president in 2020 so he was president in 2020.

The strong version of my theory, which is mine, is that the actual majority of swing voters think/feel that Joe Biden was president in 2020, so they associate the awfulness of that year with him. The weak version is that enough swing voters think/vibe this way to make the election as close as it is. The biggest reason non-hardcore Trump voters give for voting for him now is that things were good when he was president. Things were objectively awful for nearly the last full quarter of his presidency, but they don’t remember this. One reason of course is that they don’t want to remember this and memory is very selective like that, but another reason is that a whole lot of the swingy Trump or potential Trump voters sort of cogitate/vibrate that Joe Biden was president in 2020, because Joe Biden became president in 2020.

I honestly think this is a problem. BTW is any other country exceptional enough in our exceptional American way to do something as monumentally stupid as having a two and a half month gap between the holding of a national election and the installation of the government elected by that election? I haven’t checked but I bet the LGM Hive Mind knows.