War Against Iran
By I do not understand why anyone thinks that a war against Iran is a good idea.
Part of the thinking, if you’re Israel or Saudi Arabia, is that the war would be carried out by the United States, which makes it more attractive to them.
Another part is probably the wishful belief that air wars solve everything. We have plenty of evidence that they can be an effective part of a war, but none that they replace boots on the ground. In the case of Iran, it’s a big country, and the part that the warmongers want to believe can be “surgically” removed is Iran’s nuclear program, which Iran has distributed in many cities around the country.
It’s harder to see why this is an attractive picture to Americans. Many of those who want a war on Iran are closely associated with Israel or Saudi Arabia, but not all.
Few of them mention war explicitly, but they want diplomacy ended and Iran brought to heel. No agreement short of Iran’s unilateral surrender and end of its nuclear program will satisfy them. That the Joint Comprehensive Program of Action (JCPOA) worked to keep Iran’s nuclear program in check is an offense to them.
Back in 2014 and 2015, I was actively blogging and tweeting about the negotiations leading up to the JCPOA. It contained a great deal of technical matter that I had experience with. A number of people, including journalists, attacked me and others who were trying to analyze events and make our analysis public. The attacks were on our credibility and often personal.
I haven’t written much on the recent negotiations, because they are more about procedural and sanction matters than the technical issues I am acquainted with. Additionally, leaks have been far fewer. But a number of excellent analysts of Iranian politics and culture have continued their commentary.
The 2015 attacks seemed somewhat coordinated, but the latest attack on Iran analysts adds support from the MAGA apparatus. As president, Donald Trump removed the United States from the JCPOA, so it is an article of MAGA faith that the efforts to bring something like the JCPOA back into force must be evil.
Joe Cirincione summarizes the latest attack. Mike Pompeo’s helper, Morgan Ortagus, shopped around a hit piece on three highly qualified and reliable Iran analysts Ali Vaez, the director of Iran work at the prestigious International Crisis Group; Ariane Tabatabai, a Georgetown University professor and currently a special policy advisor at the Department of Defense; and Dina Esfandiary, a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group.
Ortagus was successful in selling the piece to Semafor, Ben Smith’s new venture. Conservatives have been pushing it. Cirincione:
The real target of the smear, however, is Robert Malley, President Joe Biden’s Special Enjoy on Iran. Malley was involved in the negotiations for the historic Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that rolled back and contained Iran’s nuclear program. He is also the former head of the International Crisis Group. He is currently on leave from the State Department after his security clearance was suspended over alleged mishandling of classified documents. The articles claim that all these experts were collaborating with Iran.
Malley’s situation is mysterious. What Cirincione says in the above quote is pretty much all that is public about it. As the lead negotiator for the US with Iran, Malley has been the target of conservative attacks.
Cirincione’s entire article is worth reading. Esfandiary has posted a long Twitter thread (ThreadReader version).
One more reason that someone might want to see a war against Iran. Mike Pompeo has said he’s looking forward to the Rapture. The Rapture would be accompanied by a war in the Middle East.
Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner