The Next Steps

For the first time in a few weeks there seems to be some optimism about Ukrainian offensive efforts:

American officials said on Wednesday that Ukrainian officials told them that Ukraine was now engaged in the main thrust of the counteroffensive, throwing more troops and equipment at the westernmost of the three fronts, near Zaporizhzhia. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss Ukraine’s war plans, cited three reasons.

First, Ukrainian forces have been making plodding but steady progress clearing a path through the dense Russian minefields and other fortifications. Second, they sensed an opportunity with the sacking of the regional Russian commander, Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, to exploit turmoil in the local Russian leadership…

And third, Ukrainian artillery barrages have been steadily attacking Russian artillery, ammunition depots and command posts in areas well behind the front lines, creating a vulnerability to exploit if advancing Ukrainian forces can punch through the Russian defenses, and cause havoc in the rear.

Things can change fast, so this obviously warrants some attention. There are now finally some signs that Russia’s military is running low on artillery, munitions, and motivation. I’d also redirect people’s attention to the very good Michael Kofman-Rob Lee Foreign Affairs article, which lays out reasonable expectations for what Western support should look like after the culmination of this offensive. Some other links:

• Heather Conley on creating a reconstruction policy coordinator, who would manage US government efforts and provide a focus for international cooperation on rebuilding the Ukrainian economy.
• Azeem Ibrahim makes an argument on how reparations from seized Russian funds could most effectively be used for Ukrainian reconstruction.
• Biden administration is now pushing hard on F-16s. This is an area where I think that the administration should have moved much faster, even though I doubt that F-16s would have had much battlefield impact this summer.
• Whatever problems the Ukrainians may be having, Russian lines don’t look great, either. A Russian army can endure a lot of misery before it collapses, though.