How Does this War End?

I have thoughts at 1945 on how the West (I am annoyed by this term but it seems appropriate for this discussion) should use its leverage to adjust the contours of a settlement:

More broadly, the cause of peace is not served by measures that allow the aggressor to escape the costs of aggression. Russia doesn’t get to decide on its own that it has eaten enough of Ukraine and wants to end the conflict; if Ukraine believes it can retake captured territory and inflict punishment on fielded Russian military forces, the decision to continue the campaign should depend on sound military judgment in Kyiv and the capitals of the NATO alliance. 

Some links:

• “A bad army was ordered to do something stupid.” Excellent Chotiner interview (the good kind!) with retired Army colonel Joel Rayburn on why the Russian Army has performed so poorly.
• The twin catastrophes of the Russian and Ukrainian economies. Holding onto Odessa is absolutely critical for Ukraine’s economic future, but there also must be some hope that the war will provide sufficient impetus for reform of the political and economic system that extended growth is possible.
• It will be fascinating to track Zelensky’s political future (assuming the Russians don’t manage to kill him). It’s hard to remember a figure catapulted so rapidly from political obscurity to a world historic stage.
• I’m skeptical that Russia’s defense industrial base has much of a future beyond being adjunct to the Chinese DIB.
• Excellent piece on the past and future of the tank. If you’re only going to read 1000ish words this is the article to read.