China’s Gamble
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No big update this morning but possibly a bit more later. For now, taking on the question of whether China will provide Russia with military equipment over at 1945. Short answer is “Maybe.”
As Russia’s offensive remains bogged down in the Ukrainian mud, the Biden administration is claiming that Moscow has sought military assistance from Beijing. US intelligence reports that China is considering whether to give assistance and if so, how much. This represents a profound reversal of the traditional arms relationship between Russia and China, which has long involved the transfer of arms in the opposite direction.
What can China offer Russia? For our purposes, we will exclude the three most important contributions that China can make to Russia’s war effort, namely financial, economic, and diplomatic support, and concentrate specifically on military capabilities.