The Fugitive Uterus Act at the Supreme Court
By 
The audio is available here. Mark Joseph Stern has some choice excerpts:
Here’s Chief Justice Roberts sounding uncharacteristically irritated by the Texas solicitor general’s defense of S.B. 8. pic.twitter.com/udGgfTXnA9— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) November 1, 2021
Here’s Justice Kavanaugh asking whether states could nullify the Second Amendment by enacting an S.B. 8–style law that lets strangers sue anyone who buys or sells a gun. He sounds … very skeptical that states can insulate laws from federal review this way. pic.twitter.com/XOkZXcjj6I— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) November 1, 2021
Justice Kagan, sounding punchy and exasperated, on the consequence of shielding S.B. 8 from federal lawsuits: “We would be inviting states to try to nullify the law that this court has laid down … That was something that, until this law came along, no state dreamed of doing.” pic.twitter.com/UVjpLglDuq— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) November 1, 2021
As for the SUPERGENIUS who came up with the Stasi enforcement scheme, he also appeared at the Court today, and:
Justice Kagan giving Jonathan Mitchell the silent treatment may be the best insult of all.— Leah Litman (@LeahLitman) November 1, 2021
My educated guess, it mine, is that:
- The Court will stop SB 8 from going into effect.
- It will then uphold the Mississippi 15-week ban, with the only question being whether it will be honest about overruling Roe or evade the question with some fake-minimalist bullshit
- This will be portrayed (inaccurately) as an act of great Statesmanship and Compromise by much of the press
- Texas will just flat-out ban abortions after 6 weeks.
Seems bad.
…this also seems very plausible, and even worse:
If I had to guess, here’s how I think the SB 8 suits play out:
1) SCOTUS rules that abortion providers may sue to block the law.
2) District court enjoins the law.
3) Injunction is stayed by the 5th Circuit.
4) 5th Circuit holds onto the case until Roe is gutted in Dobbs.— Ian Millhiser (@imillhiser) November 1, 2021