The rational maximizers
By 
Hmmm, this is an interesting social experiment.
As of now more than 675 colleges and universities in the USA are requiring proof of COVID vaccination as a condition of in-person attendance, and in many cases enrollment of any sort.
This is posing the following conundrum for the unvaccinated:
(1) Get a real proof of vaccination card.
(2) Get a fake proof of vaccination card.
The advantages of (1) is that it’s free, and it includes the administering of a completely safe vaccine that provides almost total protection against hospitalization and death from COVID-19.
The advantages of (2) is that costs anywhere from dozens to hundreds of dollars, using it can get you expelled if you’re caught, and it provides zero protection against hospitalization and death from COVID-19.
Of course we don’t have anything like any sort of centralized electronic vaccination verification system in this country, so cheating is pretty safe for now. Except for the getting seriously ill and dying part.
I’m sure classical economic theory will explain satisfactorily how this plays out out eventually, because it explains satisfactorily how everything plays out eventually, no matter what happens. It’s kind of like the Bible that way.