Election of the Weekend II: Ecuador

Ecuador will choose their next president today. I covered this election during round one and most of what you need to know about the two candidates is there, so this will be quick. The first round election was very close; Noboa with 44.17% and Gonzalez with 44. The largest share of the rest of the vote, at over 5%, went to Leonidas Iza, representing Pachakutik, a left-wing party representing indigenous interests. On the legislative side, Noboa’s party did better than Gonzalez’s party by around 2% but her party had a more efficient distribution, giving them a 67-66 vote lead (76 needed for majority control) in the national assembly. The remaining 18 seats were split between Iza’s Pachakutik and various others small parties.

The game of figuring out how to predict results from first round to second round in Ecuador is a bit different than most countries due to mandatory voting; the electorate won’t change that much (although keep in mind voting is not mandatory for 16-17 year olds and those 65 and older), so the game is largely about persuading the ~12% of the electorate who voted for other candidates. One might reasonably conclude that the indigenous community is in the position of kingmaker here, and one might also conclude that that might be good news for the candidate of the left, Gonzalez. In line with such an expectation, on March 30th Iza presided over a conference of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (of which Pachakutik is the political arm), which voted to endorse Gonzalez over Noboa after Gonzalez agreed to a list of demands.

One might think this would make Gonzalez a narrow favorite, and maybe it does, but the story of the indigenous vote is more complicated than that:

But the decision (to endorse Gonzalez) has divided Ecuador’s Indigenous communities, with local leaders denouncing the agreement and one of the largest regional organisations supporting Noboa despite the PK’s endorsement.

Insiders and activists say that dissent calls into question not only Iza’s ability to mobilise his base but also the overall unity of the Indigenous movement going forward — whoever wins.

Ordinarily, CONAIE – an umbrella organisation – prides itself on representing the diversity of Ecuador’s Indigenous peoples, from the Pacific coast to the Andes mountain range.

One scholar even dubbed it “Latin America’s strongest, oldest and most consequential Indigenous movement”.

But critics say the show of unity at the March 30 meeting masks deep political divisions within Ecuador’s Indigenous communities.

….

From the start, the leadership of the organisation’s top regional body in the Amazon, CONFENIAE, refused to attend CONAIE’s assemblies.

Then, Fernando Guaman — a prominent leader from Chimborazo, the province with the largest Indigenous population — called on voters to choose Noboa or cast a null vote.

Eventually, CONFENIAE’s leadership went even further, declaring their endorsement of Noboa on March 12.

“And we’re going to do it under the PK flag,” Jose Esach, CONFENIAE’s president, told a crowd of supporters.

However, some local Amazonian leaders have since accused the CONFENIAE president of making decisions that go against the wishes of his base.

“We are very ashamed and very puzzled. The president’s actions suggest that he alone is CONFENAIE,” Norma Mayanshia, a Kichwa leader in the Amazon, said in a news conference.

The entire Al Jazeera article is worth a read, although I wish they did a better job conveying the arguments and the politics of the pro-Noboa faction.

So as we go into election day tomorrow, pretty much all the publicly available information–first round results, current polling, what we know about the leanings of the 3rd party voters–points tossup. We’ll find out soon enough who pulls it off.