Election of the weekend: Gabon
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The last election in Gabon took place on August 26th, 2023. Longstanding president Ali Bongo Ondimba won 64% of the reported vote and it appeared the Bongo dynasty would continue through its 6th and into its 7th decade. That appearance was illusory, as just four days later, a coup d’etat lead by a number of leaders of the Gabonese military put an end to the 56 year Bongo dynasty, which started with Ali’s father upon the death of the first Gabonese President, Leon M’Ba, in 1967. Following the bloodless capture of the presidential palace, Bongo and much of his immediate family were placed under house arrest, and the military placed one of their own, Brince Clotaire Oligui Nguema, as the interim president. Shortly thereafter Bongo was released on medical grounds, and he returned to his private villa in Libreville. A year later, he announced his retirement from politics, and made an impassioned plea to the new regime to release his wife and son from custody. The plea has not been successful. The coup produced virtually no resistance, appears to be broadly popular, and “was greeted with relief even by most of the administrative, political and civil society elite.”
The basic story of this election is nicely summarized by the headline in the BBC story about this election: “Gabon holds its breath as coup mastermind eyes presidency.” Saturday’s election seems very likely to entrench the coup leader’s position as head of the country. The opposition candidate is Alain Claude Bilie By Nze, a longstanding former prime minister who was a close Bongo ally and fellow leader of the Gabonese Democratic party. I’m not aware of any polling but it seems to be widely expected that Oligui Nguema is very likely to win, easily and won’t need to cheat to do so. Few appear particularly nostalgic about Bongo rule, and Oligui Nguema’s anti-corruption, pro-growth message appears to be working quite well for him. The positive spin here would be that Gabon is “bucking the trend”, among recent African coup d’etat regimes, in moving quickly to restore democratic rule. Subsequent events suggest the coup was not particularly unpopular, and Bongo’s victory did not reflect the support of the populous. BBC on Oligui Nguema:
Having abandoned his soldier’s fatigues and military status in favour of a politician’s suit, this highly articulate former commander of the elite Republican Guard faces seven other candidates.
Basking in popularity among a population relieved to be rid of dynastic rule – and assisted by electoral regulations that disqualified some key challengers – the 50-year-old appears almost certain to secure an outright majority in the first ballot.
His campaign slogan – using his initials “C’BON” – is a play on the French words “c’est bon”, meaning “it’s good”.
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Oligui Nguema took shrewd advantage, reaching out to build a broad base of support for his transitional regime. He brought former government figures, opponents and prominent hitherto critical civil society voices into the power structure or institutions such as the appointed senate.
Political detainees were freed, though Ali Bongo’s wife and son remain in detention awaiting trial on corruption charges.
He did not resort to the sort of crackdowns on dissent or media freedom that have become a routine tool of Francophone Africa’s other military leaders, in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger.
On the diplomatic front, in marked contrast to the assertively anti-Western posture adopted by the regimes in West Africa, Oligui Nguema despatched senior figures to cultivate international goodwill and reassure Gabon’s traditional partners of his determination to restore civilian constitutional government within a tightly limited timeframe.
Relations with France, the former colonial power and previously a close ally of the Bongo regime, are warm.
The two governments recently agreed to transform Camp de Gaulle, the longstanding French base in Gabon, into a new training centre that they will operate jointly.
Displaying a deft popular and political touch, Oligui Nguema has responded to public hunger for change with an acceleration of public works and delayed projects.
And at a time of rising popular support across Francophone Africa for a more visibly assertive defence of national interests, his government has acquired the Gabonese assets of several foreign oil companies, including the UK’s Tullow.
A reason for pessimism: a legislative election has yet to be scheduled. The national assembly (which was about 2/3 from Bongo’s party) was dissolved immediately post-coup and Oligui Nguema appointed a “transitional assembly” with Jean-Francois Ndongou, a former Bongo ally (which doesn’t mean much; the nature of the Bongo regime effectively meant being a person of significance in institutional Gabonese politics and being a Bongo ally were alarmingly close to being synonyms), as interim PM. Obviously, even if Saturday’s election is free and fair, a swift return to legislative elections is a necessary if not sufficient condition for any positive appraisal of Gabon’s democratic trajectory.