Whither the Panther?
By 
It doesn’t take much to see that the problems of one little fifth generation fighter plane don’t amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world, but it’s nonetheless been interesting to try to figure out what Trump and Elon are doing. One point in favor; they don’t seem to care about technical security:
In something of a surprise announcement, President Donald Trump has offered the F-35 stealth fighter to India as he seeks to forge more defense deals and deeper strategic cooperation with New Delhi. The pitch comes at a time when the Indian Air Force is weighing its options for buying new combat aircraft, with a diverse range of types already under consideration. In the past, the F-35 had widely been seen as a less likely option, based on its sensitive technologies and the fact that India operates significant quantities of advanced Russian defense systems.
But to gain India while losing Canada?
In a comment provided to TWZ, Russell Goemaere, Public Affairs Officer at the F-35 Joint Program Office said: “At this time, we are assessing impacts of any tariffs and will work with the government and our industry partners on the way forward.”
When asked this weekend about the prospects of a rethink of the acquisitions of the F-35 and P-8, David Eby, the premier of British Columbia, said:
“The prime minister will speak for the national approach … For major defense expenditures, which I know is a priority for the Americans, for the president, he wants to see Canada putting additional money into defense, well, we are all happy to do that work together, but these tariffs will force Canada into procuring from other countries.”
But an exit route from the F-35 program will be far easier said than done for Canada.
Canada finalized a deal with the U.S. government and Lockheed Martin for the procurement of 88 F-35As in January 2023, with the expectation that these would start to be delivered in 2026. You can read our report from March 2022 on Canada’s original selection of the F-35 to replace its fleet of aging CF-18 Hornets, as part of the Future Fighter Capability Project, here.
Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany decided to procure 35 F-35 jets from the United States in March 2022, along with missiles and other armaments, for about 10 billion euros (US$10.89 billion).
The move marked the culmination of German efforts to replace its aging fleet of Tornado fighter jets.
The first F-35 will be delivered to the German Bundeswehr in the United States in 2026. The remaining fighter jets will be delivered to the Luftwaffe in Germany in 2027 and the service will commence training on these jets in the US in 2026 or 2027.
In addition to the 35 fighter jets, an unknown military source told Reuters in June 2024 that Germany is considering purchasing eight more F-35s from American defense firm Lockheed Martin.
Additionally, Germany was also understood to be contemplating replacing its nuclear-capable Tornado fighters with the certified nuclear-capable F-35s. German Luftwaffe said in March 2024 that obtaining nuclear certification for the Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) was a key factor for purchasing the aircraft.
However, with tensions now brewing between the Donald Trump administration and the countries in the European Union, Germany might be scrutinizing the purchase of American stealth fighters, according to media claims.
Trump’s recent decisions aimed at taming Ukraine have heightened concerns that he could use a “kill switch” on the German F-35 fighters to impose his political interests on Germany, as recently reported by German publication BILD.
A kill switch is typically believed to be a software-based backdoor mechanism which could be used by the supplier of a technology to disable or deteriorate the operation of a system, in this particular case, the F-35 stealth fighter jets.
The F-35 is, to borrow a phrase from from Jonathan Caverley, America’s Belt and Road; a massive project that tied together the technological and military fortunes of the Global North and bound NATO to Northeast Asia and Australia. One of the key selling points of the aircraft is that it comes with a lowkey promise of US technological integration and US security support. Those things are now in jeopardy, even before Elon sinks his tentacles into the program. I’m not asking you to think that this is a good or bad thing (I think it’s a bad thing for the US, at least) to appreciate that it’s potentially a massive change in a huge program of record.
By the way if I were Modi I would NOT trust Trump to deliver either a working fighter plane or the kind of discount/tech transfer that normally greases the rails for such deals. I don’t think Trump understands what the F-35 is, much less how the arms export market works, but I DO think he would absolutely use any leverage generated by a deal for coercive purposes.