Election of the Day: Federated States of Micronesia

The Federated States of Micronesia will hold a parliamentary election today, in which 10 of the 14 seats in the Congress of Micronesia are up for election. While Micronesia’s legislative body is unicameral, it contains both members of congress 10, elected every 2 years via single member districts, first past the post) and senators (one for each of the four federated states, elected every four years) serve together. A president and vice president are selected by their peers every two years. FSM does not allow political parties; all candidates stand as independents.

This election is not particularly well-covered, and of course a no-party system creates higher barriers for learning about the political dynamics of a state from the outside. So I can’t tell you with any confidence what this election is about. I can glean a few clues as to what might be on voters minds today:

Taiwan or PRC?

In the 2023 election, then-President David Panuelo lost his seat in Congress, and along with it his presidency. He had been meeting with representatives from Taiwan prior to the election, exploring the possibility of re-establishing diplomatic ties. (FSM had recognized and had diplomatic relations with Taiwan from their independence in 1986 to 1989.) After his defeat he issued a 13 page letter outlining the case for switching back from Beijing to Taipei, making the case that the PRC relationship undermined FSM’s sovereignty, as they have engaged in bribery and undue influence over the domestic affairs of the Federation. I don’t know if this issue is particularly salient in today’s election, but it seems like it could be. Of course Panuelo’s loss might be a sign that this isn’t a winning issue.

COFA, the United States, and President Donald Trump

Prior to 1986, FSM was part of the United Nations Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands. The Trust territory program was a successor to League of Nations Mandates, and was understood to be a bridge between colonial domination and independence. (The program is now dormant; the last Trust territory was Palau, which obtained independence in 1994). The Pacific Islands trust territory, all former territories of Imperial Japan, was administered by the United States. As they prepared for the end of that arrangement, one territory, The Northern Mariana Islands, elected to become a Commonwealth of the United States. The others (FSM, Marshall Islands, and, on a delayed timeline, Palau) opted for independence in a compact of free association (COFA) with the United States. COFA grants the United States both extensive rights to locate military bases in these countries and deny other countries the right to do so. The United States is responsible for the security of these countries, but also benefits from territorial rights to extensive oceanic territories, as the islands that comprise FSM are spread out over thousands of miles.

In addition to security guarantees, the COFA grants substantial immigration benefits to residents of FSM in the United States–visa-free entry and long term residency rights, although with no automatic path to citizenship. This status has changed in various ways over the years–Congress removed FSM citizens’ Medicaid eligibility as a part of the 1996 Welfare reform bill, but it was reinstated in a COVID relief bill passed in the lame duck session of Trump’s first term–but has been relatively stable. COFA also obligates the United States to provide substantial financial assistance to FSM, providing a significant portion of their annual budget.

The good news for FSM is that the COFA was renegotiated in 2023 and ratified by Congress in 2024, and runs through 2043. The bad news is that the Trump administration often doesn’t seem to care much about its legal obligations, and the two key obligations of the US under this agreement, allowing migration and providing financial assistance, are things they’ve clearly rather not do. I can only imagine there’s some nervous waiting and hoping the eye of SauronDOGE does not cast its gaze upon them. It’s difficult to imagine this hasn’t come up in these campaigns.

The status of Chuuk state

Chuuk state is the largest of the four federated states, the home to roughly 48,000 of the 112,000 residents of the country. It is poorest of the states, and geographically quite distant from the capitol in Pohnpei. Chuuk activists have been pushing for greater autonomy or possibly independence for some time, and a plebiscite on this subject, originally scheduled for 2015, keeps being delayed. Five of the ten seats up this year represent Chuuk. The Chuuk independence movement is skeptical of US power and influence:

But former Chuuk State attorney general Sabino Asor fears Micronesia is too reliant on America.

“I believe our present leaders have developed a culture of dependence, but that gives the US the power to tell us what to do,” he told DW.

Asor has spent decades campaigning for Chuuk islands to separate from Micronesia and become an independent state, though he admits that the population is still very much divided on the issue.

In recent weeks, however, the debate seems to be getting more serious. With the new US administration under President Donald Trump looking to cut costs at every opportunity, Washington appears unconcerned with its global alliances.

“An association with the broader global community would also appeal to us, perhaps to some of the nations that were colonial powers here, Spain, Germany or Japan, but it would have to be a concrete agreement that would benefit our people.”

Difficult to imagine this lingering issue has not come up, at least for the Chuuk seats.

This post has been, by necessity, speculative. Anyone with actual knowledge or insights about this election is invited to weigh in in the comments.