Election of the Day: Belize
By 
A quick note on yesterday’s Greenland election. It produced a fairly unexpected result, in that the two parties labelled centrist went from 3rd and 4th to 1st and 2nd, and the Social Democratic parties fell from 1/2 to 3/4. What’s interesting about this is that the two surging parties are on opposite ends of the spectrum with respect to independence. The “independence ASAP, then closer ties to Washington” party doubled their support and came in second, but the “independence is a nice idea, but we should stick with Denmark for the foreseeable future” party tripled their support and came in first. Whether they attempt to form a coalition with their fellow centrists despite the sharp differences on independence, or the formerly ruling Inuit Ataqatigiit party, remains to be seen.
Like Greenland yesterday, Belize will elect a 31 member parliamentary body today. Unlike Greenland the Belizean parliament is elected via single member district first past the post elections, and also unlike Greenland but in accordance with Duverger’s law, their elections tend to be two party affairs, between the center-left People’s United Party (PUP) and center-right United Democratic Party. The last election, held in November of 2020, produced a resounding victory for PUP; they captured 26/31 seats and almost 60% of the vote. This was their first electoral victory since 2003.
While observers seem to think the PUP was unlikely to lose power in this election, their bid to remain in power will be aided by an apparent schism in the UDP. Apparently the confusion created by this schism has led to many seats having 2 UDP members on the ballot and a few of them 3, which obviously is less than ideal in a FPTP context. The PUP was gifted two Belize City seats by the various UDP factions failing to nominate any candidate at all:
The ongoing rift in the opposition, the United Democratic Party (UDP) has led the Election and Boundaries Department to recognise 41 candidates across 31 constituencies. This is the first time in Belize’s history that voters in several constituencies will have the option to choose two candidates, and in some cases, three candidates, under the UDP banner.
One of the individuals fighting for leadership of the UDP, currently representing the Mesopotamia constituency as one of that party’s five elected members of parliament, is also a footnote in a sordid episode in American popular music history:
Moses Michael Levi Barrow, known as Shyne, was born on November 8, 1978, in Belize City and moved to Brooklyn, New York, in his youth. Rising to fame in the late 1990s, he signed with Sean “Diddy” Combs’ Bad Boy Records and released his debut album in 2000, which went gold. However, in 1999, Shyne was involved in a nightclub shooting with Combs and Jennifer Lopez, leading to his conviction on charges of assault and weapon possession in 2001. He served eight and a half years of a 10-year sentence, during which he converted to Orthodox Judaism and changed his name in 2006.
After his release, Shyne was deported to Belize, embracing his heritage and pursuing a political career. In 2010, he was appointed Belize’s Music and Goodwill Ambassador by his father then Prime Minster, Rt. Hon. Dean Barrow, promoting the country’s culture and youth initiatives. Shyne’s political involvement deepened over the years; in the 2020 general elections, he took over his uncle’s, Michael Finnegan, constituency and secured a seat in the House of Representatives for Mesopotamia as a member of the United Democratic Party (UDP). Barrow defeated the PUP’s Dr. Candice Pitts for the Mesopotamia. Barrow secured 910 votes (53.06%), while Dr. Pitts received 751 votes (43.79%).
In June 2021, he became the Leader of the Opposition after the UDP’s Central Executive Committee met to set a date for a recall convention to determine the then Opposition leader Patrick Faber’s fate. This followed weeks of scandal surrounding Faber, which led three opposition parliamentarians, including Shyne, to inform Governor General Froyla Tzalam that Faber no longer had their confidence as Leader of the Opposition. As a result, Barrow was sworn in as the new Leader of the Opposition, marking the first successful step in removing Faber. However, Faber would then survive the recall and return as Leader of the Opposition. Then, in January 2022, Faber’s fiancée reported to the Domestic Violence Unit that Faber had damaged her laptop and assaulted her as she was about to leave their home. This led to the police issuing a warrant for his arrest. Although she later withdrew her complaint, describing the situation as a “misunderstanding” and expressing the couple’s intent to resolve the matter privately, there were growing calls for Faber’s resignation from various quarters, including the Special Envoy for Families and Children, Rossana Briceño, and UDP Chairman Michael Peyrefitte. Under mounting pressure, Faber announced his resignation as both Leader of the Opposition and Shyne assumed the role of Leader of the Opposition – for the second time.
During a House debate on domestic violence, Barrow acknowledged his own past allegations of domestic violence involving a previous partner. He expressed deep remorse, stating, “I myself have been accused, and it is not something that I take lightly.” He apologised to his wife, daughter, mother, mother-in-law, and supporters.
His rise to political prominence was portrayed in the documentary ‘The Honourable Shyne.’ The documentary debuted in the U.S. and was screened for Belizean audiences on November 23, 2024, in Belize City. Barrow described the film as “a Belizean success story, a global success story,” but insisted it was not a political campaign tool. “I don’t believe that the documentary is campaigning for me to be the next Prime Minister.” However, when asked about a possible sequel, he said, “The part two is me being the prime minister of Belize.”
I don’t have a great sense of precisely what’s at stake in this election in policy terms, or whether PUP has governed in a manner deserving of re-election, but reading about UDP leadership makes me think sticking with the PUP might be the right call here. Results probably start becoming public later tonight.