Collapse of the Kursk Pocket
By 
Things aren’t looking good.
The cutoff of intelligence sharing is the main culprit:
The superior accuracy and greater range of M777 howitzers, supplied by the U.S., hit back against Russia’s mostly Soviet-designed artillery. Then U.S. intelligence tipped off Ukraine’s generals that Russia had moved several battalions to another front. Accurate U.S.-made rocket artillery struck Russian fuel depots and weapons stores, leaving the Russian army short of supplies ahead of a rapid Ukrainian counteroffensive that retook dozens of towns.
Now, with Russia’s military again grinding its way forward, the Trump administration has halted weapons deliveries and intelligence sharing that have been critical to Ukraine’s resistance against a three-year invasion by its giant neighbor that has killed tens of thousands and razed dozens of cities.
The U.S. pause in providing intelligence to Ukraine is affecting how its troops can use weapons like the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), according to one retired high-ranking Ukrainian officer.
The lack of satellite imagery over Kursk is playing a role in the Russian advance there, the retired officer added. The lack of air defense munitions is making it harder to battle Russian airstrikes.
“The move of Russia in Kursk was a surprise to us,” one battlefield commander told The War Zone. “We only had information about the attack right when it came.”
The commander did not know if there was a direct correlation, “but the fact is that the information is coming too late.”
The intent to extort is explicit.
Critically, the pause in U.S. military aid will halt the delivery of interceptor missiles for Patriot and NASAMS air defense systems, which have saved an untold number of lives as they shielded Ukrainian cities from missile and drone attacks.
The intelligence pause will withhold information that Ukraine uses to target Russian forces.
Withholding the aid, according to Trump administration officials, is meant to pressure Mr. Zelensky into signing a deal to give American companies access to Ukrainian minerals. If he makes an agreement, said one Trump administration official, the intelligence sharing will continue and the military supplies already allocated by the Biden administration will flow once more.
Trump’s promise to increase sanctions on Russia isn’t even hollow; it’s just a lie:
The US has rejected a Canadian proposal to establish a task force that would tackle Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of oil tankers, according to reports last night.
Canada, which has the current Group of Seven presidency, proposed the measure ahead of a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Quebec later this week.
In negotiations to agree a joint statement on maritime issues, the US is pushing to strengthen language about China while watering down wording on Russia, the reports said.
The “shadow fleet” refers to ageing oil tankers, the identities of which are hidden to help circumvent western economic sanctions imposed on Moscow since it launched its full-scale military invasion of Ukraine at the start of 2022.
Elon is destroying the federal government’s bureaucratic capacity to conduct the sanctions regime in any case. The situation is quite clear; Trump has his foot on Ukraine’s neck and won’t let it go until the Ukrainians cry uncle, giving up “mineral rights” to the Americans and just about everything else to the Russians. We’re firmly within the confines of the worst case scenario at this point.