Why We Gotta Figure This Out

So where are Democrats going to expand the map in order to win in the future? This if nothing else is the key question as we realize that our coalition is way too shaky to defeat people who have open fantasies of Jim Crow America. The so-called “Blue Wall” is not only not enough anymore, but all the states that are growing rapidly voted for Republicans and all the states where residents are leaving are our bluest states. By 2032, Democrats will be able to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and every other state they won in 2024 and….still lose the election due to changes in the Electoral College.

More than seven million Americans moved to a different state in 2023, and many of them headed south, according to the report, with eight Southern states among the top 10 in net migration. Texas led the way, with 137,582 more people arriving than departing. The newcomers were mostly from California, Florida, Oklahoma and Louisiana, according to the report, though about 30,000 New Yorkers also made the move.

Texas took the top spot from Florida, which had led the country in net migration every year since 2014. But Florida was still a close second, with a net gain of 136,750 residents — only about 800 fewer than Texas. It also had the highest number of newcomers from New York, with more than 72,000.

Elsewhere in the South, North Carolina had the country’s third-highest net migration in 2023, with 110,833, followed by its neighbor, South Carolina, with 72,404. Georgia rounded out the top five, with a net gain of 61,980 people.

As some states add new residents, others must lose some. California saw a net loss of nearly 259,000 residents in 2023, followed by New York (186,533), Illinois (89,936) and New Jersey (66,994). The report notes that all four states saw 10 straight years of population decline, though the rate of negative migration slowed significantly in 2023.

So what states are we going to win by 2028 and especially by 2032 and how are we going to compete in them?