“I said that I would see you because I had heard that you were a serious man, to be treated with respect.”

A while back Paul made a not-on-its-face-unreasonable argument.

I’ve been astonished by some comments at LGM from people who say they don’t care that Trump secretly gave Vladimir Putin a Covid testing machine in the early days of the pandemic. I mean I don’t even know what to say about such an attitude, other than to note that Vladimir Putin is an enemy of the United States, and Donald Trump was supposed to be trying to save American lives, rather than that of his favorite dictator friend.

I dunno if Paul was citing me in particular but:

What we’re talking about here, of course, is the Bob Woodward report that Trump sent Putin a selection of Covid equipment back when stocks were still scarce. In terms of factuality, I actually had the opportunity to speak with a couple of people who would very likely have direct and background knowledge of a transfer, and neither of whom are friendly to Trump. The first (who had plausible claims to direct knowledge) said that they had seen no evidence and didn’t believe it happened, but made clear that Trump should have sent the equipment. The second, who had extensive general knowledge of the topic, said that the first wouldn’t have known if the transfer had happened, and made clear (again) that Trump should have sent the equipment. So the sentiment I’m expressing is not limited in the upper foreign policy hierarchy.

I didn’t really feel like making what was effectively a defense of a particular aspect of Trump’s diplomacy before the election, but the die is cast… So lemme make this case: This is a zero-cost way of doing diplomacy at the executive level. If Putin forgets this favor, who cares? All that is lost is a few tests that will rapidly be replaced in any case. If Putin remembers the favor it’s Good for Trump, and while what’s Good for Trump isn’t always Good for the United States in this case the US has lost nothing. Putin and Trump may or may not be friends (more on that in a bit), but acceding to Putin’s request is diplomatic common courtesy. I would not have sent Hitler a shipment of Covid tests in the middle of World War II, but I would not have hesitated for even a moment to send one to Stalin, Mao, or any of the Kim dynasty at any time during their reigns. The issue isn’t whether the recipient is an “enemy,” it’s whether it will be necessary at some point in the future to engage in negotiations with the target. The more hostile the target, the more important it is to have an opening gambit that creates common ground and a level of basic trust necessary to conduct human communications.

Medical Diplomacy is a big deal for the United States. It happens a lot, it often happens secretly, and more times than you’d guess it happens with countries you’d regard as unfriendly. Kids of leaders the US regards as unfriendly autocrats get cancer treatment in the US all the time. It is a low key way of reassuring a foreign leader that US policy is not inimical to his survival, and it comes at very nearly zero cost to the US. It’s an act of goodwill that requires no quid pro quo, demands no specific commitment, and nonetheless lays the groundwork for both low-grade and high-caliber diplomacy.

There’s another interesting angle to this. Putin was correct to have identified the possibility that knowledge of the shipment would be politically damaging to Trump, and Trump was correct to have sent the shipment anyway. Begging off sending medical equipment to a foreign leader who seems genuinely concerned about his own well-being because of political concerns is diplomatic malpractice. And with respect to Trump personally the request undoubtedly flattered his authoritarian instincts. Putin, Xi, Kim Jong Un, Mohammed bin Salman… these folks see themselves (almost literally) as mafia bosses. Their affinity for Trump isn’t even really ideological (there are certainly strong ties between the American Right and the Russian Right, but this isn’t the case with China or North Korea) as much as it is personal; they imagine themselves sitting around a dinner table like in the Godfather, and they recognize Trump as a fellow family boss. An American President does not have the option of simply refusing to deal with such people, and generally speaking has to make some effort to meet them at their level. Trump does this better than any President since Nixon, although George HW Bush managed well enough; imagine him to be the Tom Hagen-esque outsider who nevertheless understands how to talk like an insider. Interactions with these people are going to be unpleasant because they are unpleasant people who want unpleasant things, but refusing to have those interactions is refusing to do the job of President.

Because it always comes up, I’m sure that folks in comments are going to say that Putin “has something” on Trump and that consequently Putin can force Trump to do his bidding. While I wouldn’t be at all surprised to learn that Russian intelligence has various compromising material about Trump (US intelligence certainly has similar files on Putin), actually using that intelligence to threaten or influence Trump would be incredibly difficult; anything sufficiently damaging to frighten Trump would also badly damage his utility as an asset. Donald Trump is a deeply limited man, but if nothing else he is a man who understands leverage, and the project of blackmailing him into doing something that he does not want to do seems to me to be fiendishly complex. This is especially the case given his advancing age and term limit.

As many New York contractors have discovered, Donald Trump is not an easy man to hold in one’s debt.

But that of course makes everything worse, because the genuine threat isn’t that Putin is blackmailing Trump, but rather that Trump enthusiastically believes in Putin’s project, at least insofar as electoral authoritarianism is concerned. And given Trump’s influence over the Global Right in Brazil and South Korea (and I’m worrying a lot about Germany right now), this is an awfully bad thing.

Photo credit: By Jwslubbock – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=65707102