The Collapse

Well, that was quick.

Assad’s government forces had been low on supplies, exhausted from years of war and reeling from defeat after rebels captured one city after the next, beginning with Aleppo on Nov. 30. 

“Even before they reached the capital, the regime fell,” said Mohammed Alaa Ghanem, a Syrian-American opposition activist in Washington. “Syrian Arab Army troops deserted their positions, the police deserted their positions, and Bashar Al Assad just fled.” 

For years, in a small pocket of territory still held by rebels in Syria’s northwest, rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani waited for the moment to strike, reading the shifting geopolitical winds and probing for weaknesses. 

The time came when Israel launched its military offensive against Hezbollah in September. The Lebanese militia had played an instrumental role in bolstering Assad’s forces but was battered after thousands of Israeli airstrikes that destroyed much of its stocks of weapons and killed many of its leaders.

Russia and Iran offered only half-hearted support as the ring closed in. One of the big reasons that Iran’s support was not forthcoming was concern about aircraft being shot down by the Israelis. Israel and the US have been hitting a variety of targets over the past few days, the former concentrating on chemical weapons depots and the latter on ISIS concentrations. The Russians are evacuating through Turkey, and although they’ve granted Assad amnesty it seems like they’re holding out hope that they can negotiate to retain access to the naval base at Tartus.

While I’m sure that Russia’s distraction with Ukraine contributed to Assad’s fall, it seems like the Israeli decision to gut Hezbollah was really the key factor. Accounts from the rebels seem to suggest that planning went into high gear shortly after the pager attack and the follow-up airstrikes in Lebanon. I suspect that the Iranians were also spooked by the prospect of another round of Israeli strikes.