Help Us, Donald Trump, You’re Our Only Hope
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The New York Times Editorial Board, as part of their series on nuclear war and nuclear weapons, wrote a long appeal to Donald Trump to get us out of our dependence on nuclear weapons. (gift link)
Trump has, numerous times, expressed a wish that he could be the one who ends the nuclear standoff, along with the confidence that he is the only one who can. He had the opportunity but failed in his first presidency. Instead, he tweeted nuclear threats at North Korea and Iran, asked why we don’t use nuclear weapons if we have them, and insisted that his nuclear arsenal be built up to the maximum numbers of the Cold War.
But the Times Editoral Board can hope! They ignore those incidents and try to remind Trump of the better things he said so that he will do even better this time around. They do recognize that he abrogated the Intermediate Nuclear Forces and Open Skies Treaties, two of the stabilizing treaties of the Cold War, and withdrew from the agreement to limit the possibility of Iranian nuclear weapons, which Iran had been observing.
He has a chance now to atone for past mistakes.
With splashy video and highlighted sentences that take forever to scroll through, they present the usual laundry list.
- Renew arms control talks
- Retain nuclear testing bans
- Review US spending
- End sole authority
This is pretty mild, and impossible in today’s world. If they really wanted to be bold, they could have included a recommendation that the US adopt a policy of no first use of nuclear weapons, but nah.
Trump is more likely to go full bore in the other direction. The folks at Project 2025 want MOAR NUKES! Wartime footing, baby!
That link insists that weapons plants be built up the way those plants were built in the 1940s and 1950s. But that can’t happen today. The rapidity of buildup was allowed by land grabs and ignoring environmental and worker health and safety issues. We are still cleaning up from them today and compensating workers and neighbors for damage to their health.
The report also recommends resumption of nuclear testing without giving a reason for it. The sense seems to be that a big bang will put our enemies in their places. The question of why we need a given rate of manufacturing more weapons is not addressed, nor whether more weapons will equal more deterrence. They say this twice, though, in a relatively short piece.
This is not to say that the Department of Energy should work recklessly or without concern for the environment or for the safety of the NNSA workforce, but the NNSA has become captive to a work-free “safe and secure zone” mentality.
Eighty plutonium pits a year by 2030 and 200 by 2035! The NNSA has already said that the goal of 30 pits a year will not be reached until 2032.
And, of course, we come back to the question of why anyone would want to fight a nuclear war. There is the claim that in order to deter an adversary, one must be ready to fight the war they don’t want to come, but the tone of the Heritage Institution document sounds more bloodthirsty than that.
Trump’s nuclear friends are in a different position this time around. Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has made him less inclined to cooperate on anything. Shortly after the election, Trump claimed that he had talked to Putin on the phone and told him to cool his jets. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that there had been no such phonecall. More recently, Trump has refused to say whether he has talked to Putin.
Both men lie, but this looks like a rebuff from Putin.
Trump has claimed that he can end Russia’s war against Ukraine in 24 hours. All of Putin’s statements, and his responses to calls for negotiations, indicate that the only circumstances under which he will end the war is total subjugation of Ukraine. He has said that he will not negotiate anything else.
Kim Jong Un has been building up his nuclear arsenal, releasing photos of his multiple nuclear weapons and missiles. His missile tests continue. There have been suggestions of another nuclear explosive test, but that hasn’t happened yet. Kim is supporting Putin’s war with men and munitions. Trump has not claimed any love letters lately.
US sanctions are hurting both countries and might be used as leverage, although neither Putin nor Kim seem interested in any sort of talks.
Trump will say many contradictory things about nuclear weapons and nuclear war. He believes that others’ uncertainty is his strength. And it often is.
Cross-posted to Nuclear Diner