Trump 47 National Security Team

Today in class we talked quite a bit about what Trump cabinet would look like, especially the national security positions. Like many, I find comfort in a retreat to the analytical. It’s a fascinating situation, because Trump obviously regrets the approach he took in 2016; several of his selections were actively obstructive and most of them ended up on the other side of this election. The Trump team has had a lot more time this go around, but is suffering under a new restriction; unless Trump can change the Constitution, somebody else has to run for President in 2028. Folks appointed to prominent cabinet positions (especially Secretary of State) become potential competitors with JD Vance for the 2028 GOP nomination, a situation that probably doesn’t bother Trump, although it does complicate his choices. Tom Cotton evidently turned down SecDef, probably because it’s a difficult job that doesn’t automatically set one up for a Presidential run. This list has Rubio at State, which would be… interesting from the point of view of the succession. This list has Waltz and Pompeo at SecDef and Hagerty, O’Brien, and Rubio as potentials at SecState. Richard Grenell is also floating around, possibly landing at National Security Advisor. One name I haven’t seen is Nikki Haley; evidently her submission was too little, too late.

Senate GOPers tend to take their constitutional responsibilities more seriously on the foreign policy side than on the domestic, so I don’t think Trump is going to lean into the crazy for his national security team. There are enough Russia Hawks left in the Senate GOP that the confirmation hearings have the potential to be interesting. I can’t emphasize enough, however, how much the question of the succession is going to strain foreign policy decision-making in this administration. I assume that Vance will attempt to take a significant role in FP, in part to crowd out other plausible candidates and in part because he seems genuinely interested in foreign policy, but I don’t know that Vance is the sort of guy who can build trust in this community.