The All-Out War That Is Stubbornly Reluctant to Go All-Out
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It is very rare for countries to end up in war accidentally; generally speaking, one or both countries must make conscious, intentional decisions to undertake war against the other. Escalation dynamics exist but they can be (and usually are) reigned in by policymakers. It very much feels to me that neither Iran nor Israel want war with one another:
The worst has happened, and the world has not yet ended. After weeks of anticipation and fear, Israel struck Iranian targets last weekend with a series of attacks that did little significant damage other than to the prestige of Iran’s air defense networks. Iran has yet to counterattack in a meaningful way, and it is not obvious that Israel intends to follow up its initial strike with a more comprehensive campaign. We’re not yet to the point when we can breathe easy about a wider Middle East war, but the Israelis seem to be offering Iran an off-ramp that Tehran may well want to seize on.
Israel is buying itself a free hand with Hamas and Hezbollah, and at this point it seems to me that the Iranians are likely to accept the offer. I could be terribly wrong about this but I do see the threat of a wider conflict winding down just a bit.
Some other links:
- Legal and practical reflections on the Hezbollah pager attack.
- Women on the front lines in Ukraine…
- South Korea and US talking through what’s to be done with North Korea…
- Trends in Indian-American voting behavior…
- Elon Musk and the weaponization of X.
- On missionary work and evangelical Christianity after 9/11…