Republicans suddenly discover that economy is good
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Obviously, the anger people felt about inflation was real. But it’s also true that there are a lot of voters who simply won’t give a Democratic president any credit for good economic performance for reasons unrelated to objective conditions:
Republicans are feeling positive about the economy for the first time in four years, while the Democratic vibes have plunged, per new data from Morning Consult.
Why it matters: Consumer sentiment used to reflect current economic conditions, but for the past several years it’s grown increasingly political.
- Put plainly, when your person is in the White House, or about to be, you feel good and hopeful about the economy. When you’re on the outs, not so much.
How it works: Morning Consult measures sentiment by asking people questions about both current economic conditions (good or bad?) and their expectations for the future ( better or worse?).
By the numbers: Heading into the election, Republican consumer sentiment, as measured by the index, was at about 83 overall— any number under 100 indicates negativity. Now, a week post-Trump victory, it’s at 107.5.
- Democrat sentiment heading into Election day was 116; now it’s at 100.
- Overall sentiment (with everyone included) is higher, and is into positive territory for the first time since June 2021, as the GOP cheer offsets the Democratic gloom.
The asymmetry in the last point is the real key, and constitutes one of the structural advantages that allow Republicans to be very competitive nationally despite.a generally unpopular agenda.