Missile Over Dnipro
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Russia sent a new missile last night to Dnipro that provided a spectacular show. In combination with its change in nuclear doctrine, the message is “This is what a nuclear strike might look like.”
What happened on the ground was, fortunately, much less than a nuclear strike.
Bluesky lit up with the nuclear experts who are finally there in large enough numbers to have a good discussion. But that discussion can be confusing!
Pavel Podvig discusses whether the missile was actually an ICBM, as the Ukraine Ministry of Defense initially claimed. It’s complicated. Other experts weigh in to Pavel’s thread. They are trying to figure out exactly what the missile was. It appears that it is could be an RS-26, which is a missile on the cusp of several categories. There is likely to be back and forth on exactly what it was and how it fits into arms control categories for the next several days. That’s an important conversation for several purposes, like Russia’s missile capabilities, but not for the topline message above.
Other separate conversations from experts amount to what Pavel says in various parts of his thread. They seem to be converging on the RS-26, but that could change. The missile dropped six warheads, again a subject of arms control category discussions. But the topline message is “Look what we can do.” The screen grab is of one of the drops. A video of all six is here.
With the x-odus to Bluesky, we not only have the experts, but we have accounts that muddy the waters. Very confident opinions from people with 20 and 38 followers, with bios like “I’m just here to talk.” I blocked those two. There’s another account, pseudonymous, that wasn’t wrong but seemed to be working from the experts without crediting them, a few hundred followers. I haven’t blocked that account yet, want to see how it goes.
I cite the follower counts as part of a credibility check I do before I block accounts. If you’re trying to sound like an expert while not using your real name and have 20 followers, you are not credible. And I want to block those clowns before I see them responding to what I say.
Geoff Brumfiel does a great job of boiling down the expert chat into a story that most people can follow, and I’ve never seen him get anything seriously wrong. Here’s his thread on the missile.