Fall of Aleppo?

I think it’s premature to chalk this up to a combination of Russian inattention and Iranian distraction, even though both of those explanations make a lot of sense…

Syrian armed rebels claim to have entered Aleppo, the first time rebels have entered the country’s second largest city since government forces recaptured the city in 2016.

Rebel forces launched a surprise attack this week, capturing a number of villages and reigniting conflict that had been largely static for years.

“Our forces have begun entering the city of Aleppo,” a statement from the newly formed rebel coalition, the Military Operations Command, said. CNN could not independently verify the claim and has contacted the Syrian government for comment.

The Syrian military said it was confronting a “major attack” launched by “terrorist organizations” armed with heavy weaponry and drones.

One of the big questions about the October 7 War (is there a better name to cover the entirety of the conflict?) has been why Syria has taken no meaningful role in the conflict apart from occasional punching bag as the Israelis pound some or other Iranian base. The best answer I’ve heard is that both Assad and the Israelis are fully aware of the frailty of the regime, and the latter made clear to the former that they’d start knocking out the support beams if he tried any funny stuff. It may be, however, that the Russians just don’t have sufficient mojo left over from Ukraine to continue supporting the Assad regime in the manner to which it is accustomed, which leads to things like this. The effective destruction of the fighting power of Hezbollah over the past few months is also a relevant variable, and one has to wonder whether the cease-fire will enable Assad to recover some of its support. I would caution everyone, however, that while the Syrian government is Really Fucking Bad, the Syrian rebels are also Really Fucking Bad, and as consequence what we’re watching here is a contest between people who are Really Fucking Bad. Take care when choosing a side.