Will young voters show up, an will they make the difference?

Here’s a fact I had never encountered until a couple of days ago: The percentage of young voters (18-29) who voted in the 1972 presidential election was almost exactly the same as for the population as a whole (55.4% v. 56.2%). I had always heard that the McGovern campaign was expecting a big youth vote — this was the first year that 18-20 year olds could vote as a matter of federal constitutional law — and were very disappointed when the kids didn’t turn out. I assumed this meant they voted at much lower rates than older adults but that didn’t turn out to be the case — they just didn’t show up in larger relative numbers to their elders.

Since then it’s proverbial that young people don’t vote, but as you can see by comparing these stats to these stats that’s something of an exaggeration. (I assume that the linked stats on youth voting represent the voting age youth population as opposed to the voting eligible youth population. The difference between these two groups for the population as a whole has now grown to a full five percentage points, as one in 20 adult residents of the US aren’t currently eligible to vote for one reason or another, usually lack of citizenship). Voting rates for young adults in recent years have been modestly lower than for older adults, rather than the huge gap that the conventional wisdom tends to cite. For example in 2020 the figures were 55% for young adults and 61% for all adults, using voting age rather than voting eligible population figures.

Which brings us to the question of the youth vote over the next 17 days: keep in mind that probably something like an average of four million people will vote per day between now and two weeks from Monday, as fully half or more of the votes cast in this election will be cast before the formal Election Day of November 5th.

It’s absolutely critical for the Democrats that young adults, and especially young women, show up to vote, as the party’s edge with this latter group in particular is likely to make the difference between victory and defeat in both the presidential and House races (holding the Senate is going to require pretty much drawing to an inside straight). This is where Dobbs is going to play the most crucial role, for obvious reasons. Whether it will be enough is at this point very much anyone guess.

Consider this an open thread for all matters election-related, as well as for the main topic.