Time to declare victory and end the war

Friend of the blog Matt Duss on why Sinwar’s killing is a good time to stop the war in Gaza and de-escalate the regional conflict:

If Mr. Sinwar truly was the obstacle to a cease-fire agreement that U.S. officials — including President Biden — have claimed, that obstacle is now gone. The United States and its partners have a window to halt the downward spiral to regional conflagration. The Biden administration must press the Netanyahu government and remaining Hamas officials to end the war in Gaza, return hostages to their families, surge humanitarian aid into the territory and urgently take other steps to ensure that Gazans have adequate shelter, supplies and security as winter approaches.

All of that will require fresh diplomatic pressure on both sides, including a willingness for the Biden administration to withhold offensive arms to Israel if it does not cooperate. The United States should simultaneously renew its abandoned push for an immediate cease-fire in Lebanon that allows civilians to safely return to their homes on both sides of the border. In furtherance of those aims, the Biden administration should also urge Israel to refrain from potentially escalatory strikes on Iran.

Hawkish voices are raising arguments now in both Jerusalem and Washington that Israel should press its advantage by further broadening the war. But U.S. and Israeli leaders and policymakers should have the strategic wisdom to resist the temptation for such overreach. (Indeed, statements from Vice President Kamala Harris and other administration officials have indicated that they see this as a moment to de-escalate.)

As President Biden said nearly five months ago when he announced his cease-fire proposal, Israel has already achieved its major security objective of ensuring that Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out another Oct. 7-type attack. Unfortunately, after months of intense diplomatic effort, that deal withered in part because of Mr. Biden’s confounding refusal to impose any costs on Mr. Netanyahu despite acknowledging that the Israeli leader was possibly prolonging the war for his own domestic political purposes. Even more troubling has been the Biden administration’s tacit support for the Israeli incursion into Lebanon, apparently driven by the false assumption that military violence will reshuffle the regional security deck in a way that is advantageous to Israel and other American allies.

I don’t know if diplomatic pressure including withholding weapons will work, but it’s certainly time to do something different.

John Ganz has a good essay about Sinwar and the meaning of his death.