NFL Open Thread: going to Jared Edition

One of my perverse pleasures is to look at the Ringer’s gloriously nutty QB ratings, Given that this is presumably about established talent and not just 2024 performance, I have no problem with the top 3 (although Mahomes is going to have to be better to merit MVP consideration this year.) But after that it gets incredibly screwy, putting physical tools far ahead out of any need to actually accomplish anything. In particular, I think it’s time to give Jared Goff more respect here. I can’t see any possible case for Goff being ranked below Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence or Murray or Geno or Stroud (who I like a great deal but is going through a serious sophomore slump.) Yeah, the Lions have an excellent offensive line, and Johnson is.a good playcaller. They do not have outstanding receiving talent. But there’s a point at which production has to count for something — look at his EPA/play and compare it to those guys, and he was also excellent last year. Herbert or Lawrence or Stroud might still have more upside because of their traits, but Goff is outperforming them right now in a way that can’t be entirely explained by context.

I’m glad Colton Pouncey is making a case for him. In particular, the idea that he can only be effective in perfect circumstances is just no longer an accurate portrayal of his performance, which we saw again against Brian Flores’s fierce pass rush last week:

The admiration this fanbase has for its quarterback is evident. And, to be clear, Goff has earned the love. He’s quarterbacked this franchise to successes unseen in a generation, operating one of the league’s best offenses to perfection. And if Goff and these Detroit Lions stay on their current trajectory, Lions fans might be chanting something else before it’s all said and done.

M-V-P.

“He’s playing at a high level,” Dan Campbell said earlier this week. “He’s a damn good quarterback. He’s competitive, he’s tough and he’s very accurate. When it’s crunch time, the guy just — his heart rate just levels out. He doesn’t get frazzled and he makes big-time plays for us. I’m glad he’s with us. I’m glad he’s ours.”

If the thought of Goff being in the MVP race sounds odd to you, ask yourself why that is, then why not Goff? He is the quarterback of one of the best teams in the league — essentially a prerequisite to win the award these days — and helms one of its most potent offenses. His statistics suggest a quarterback playing at the top of his game while helping a Super Bowl contender win its games. He’s been on an absolute heater of late. Last month, he set an NFL record for most pass attempts without an incompletion — going a perfect 18-of-18 in a win over the Seattle Seahawks.

He followed that up going 18-of-25 for 315 yards and three touchdowns in a 47-9 win over the Dallas Cowboys. Against the Vikings, Goff completed 22-of-25 attempts for 280 yards and two touchdowns and with it, became the fourth quarterback in NFL history to produce a passer rating of 140.0 or higher in three straight games. He joined Tom Brady as the only two players in NFL history to have a completion percentage of 72.0 percent, throw two touchdowns and post a passer rating of 110.0 in four-straight games in a single season. In a four-game span, Goff is the only player in history to complete 80 percent of his passes and post a passer rating of 140.0 or more.

For the season, Goff has thrown for 1,610 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions, with a passer rating of 111.5. He’s been one of the league’s best and most efficient quarterbacks this season while leading a 5-1 Lions team. Here’s where Goff ranks among QBs this season:

• 1st in yards per attempt (9.25)
• 2nd in passer rating (111.5)
• 2nd in completion percentage (73.6)
• 2nd in passing yards per game (268.3)
• 3rd in first down percentage (41.4)
• 4th in yards per completion (12.6)
• 4th in EPA/DB (0.22)

And yet, some might scoff at Goff’s place in the conversation. His success is typically tied to the presence of those around him, and his flaws have a tendency to be discussed more than his strengths. It’s worth diving into as we try to contextualize the quarterback Goff is today.

One of the narratives that’s followed Goff for much of his career says if you pressure him, he gets rattled and crumbles. It began in LA with the Rams and has since followed him to Detroit. But how accurate is that narrative in 2024? The numbers suggest Goff has performed well above average when pressured and blitzed.

That’s not to say that I would vote for Goff as MVP right now — I would rank Jackson and Allen ahead of him, and obviously Mahomes is a great game away from being back to his usual place in the conversation. But the idea that he’s not as good as Herbert or Lawrence — I dunno, at some point actual NFL performance has to trump the college tape and how good the throws look on Twitter videos. I’m getting to the point where I would say this about Brock Purdy too.