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Wanna bet on it?

By Paul Campos

On September 3, 2024

At 6:40 pm

In General

1450 Views

OK I’m putting down some heavy LoomCoin on this:

Nate Silver will eventually blow all of his money on gambling, write a memoir about it, get a big advance (there’s a club and he’s sort of in it), then blow all that on gambling too.

Unfortunately this offer doesn't apply now because the forecast is so close to 50/50, but always happy to bet for real $$$ against boring academics who can't model for shit and say stuff like that election forecasting is impossible.https://t.co/ZblGSbbMAY— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 3, 2024

Curious about Andrew Gelman’s take on this, as he’s the only stats guy besides Gauss that I really trust, but I think I agree with this guy:

you keep your academics. I'll stick to predicting the election based on what three customers at a Kane, PA diner think about no tax on tips— surface noise (@Screwlack) September 3, 2024

ETA: Gelman did address this issue on his blog a few days ago.