Votto!
By 
The Reds have had some very good teams with very good players over the course of Votto’s career, but obviously missed their best chance in 2012 when they had the Giants against the wall and failed to put them away. One of my favorite things about Votto was his lovable curmudgeonliness; he was irascible without being ornery, which reflected how seriously he took the game on the one hand but also how seriously he took the game as a team sport. I’m not sure how many players of his caliber can say that they were thrown out of the final game of their career in the 1st inning, but somehow it feels terribly appropriate for Joey. I understand why he wanted to end his career with the Blue Jays but I’m glad, in the end, that he only ever played for the Reds.
As for his Hall of Fame case, I’ll admit that I’m a bit of a skeptic:
Hall of Fame Statistics (Baseball-Reference)
| Black Ink |
| Batting – 17 (167th), Average HOFer ≈ 27 |
| Gray Ink |
| Batting – 158 (91st), Average HOFer ≈ 144 |
| Hall of Fame Monitor |
| Batting – 89 (219th), Likely HOFer ≈ 100 |
| Hall of Fame Standards |
| Batting – 42 (146th), Average HOFer ≈ 50 |
| JAWS |
| First Base (12th): 64.5 career WAR | 46.9 7yr-peak WAR | 55.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162 Average HOF 1B (out of 25): 64.8 career WAR | 42.0 7yr-peak WAR | 53.4 JAWS | 4.8 WAR/162 |
Those numbers put him ahead of a number of HOF first basemen, but I think only Todd Helton and Eddie Murray are relevant to his case. Votto’s post-season record is somehow less impressive than Helton’s and far less impressive than Murray’s, and although this through no fault of his own post-season success matters for marginal candidates. That said, he’s a distinctly better player than either Keith Hernandez or John Olerud, who are the first two on the list who aren’t to be taken seriously as HOF candidates. Being Canadian might help here; he’s clearly the third best Canadian player of all time (behind Fergie Jenkins and Larry Walker) but that just might mean that he’s the Best Canadian Player Not to Make the HOF. Brad Doolittle makes the pro-HOF case here and mileage may vary, but I look at his argument and still think that Joey will end up in the Hall of Very Good rather than the HOF.
Anyway, back to the immortal assessment of the Baseball Prospectus 2006, on Joey Votto:
Another marginal prospect who gets more attention than he deserves because he`s among the best of the sorry lot in the Reds organization. Votto has ball-crushing power, but, it`s of the classic long swing/slow bat variety that will get nullified by pitching in the high minors if he can`t adjust. At 22, he`s spent two and a half years in A-ball and needs to make his move in 2006. If you want an ominous sign, he failed to impress the AFL last year.