The Air War over Ukraine

After a rocky start the Russian Aerospace Forces (this includes several different “services” as the US would define them) are actually doing okay in Ukraine:

Russian air forces have not suffered nearly the same level of attrition in the Ukraine War as land or naval forces.

A US estimate of Russian aerial strength as of April 2024 estimated that Russia had lost some 10% of its total aviation strength in the first twenty-six months of the war, amounting to an expensive inconvenience but not an operational crisis. Most of these aircraft have been lost to Ukrainian surface-to-air missile systems, although some have suffered from deep drone and missile strikes against Russian bases.

In recent months, glide bomb tactics, in which Russian fighter-bombers release heavy bombs on a glide path towards Ukrainian defenses, have proven effective not only at inflicting losses on Ukrainian forces at the front but also in keeping Russian aircraft relatively safe.

Some links:

• Iranian intelligence failed badly in allowing Haniyeh’s assassination; the resulting infighting could be severe, perhaps to the point of creating more damage than the assassination itself.
• Oh hey gold coins. Shame that dude’s family never got to take advantage of his little hoard…
• Hostage deal doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. I will say that it’s not just Bibi who’s opposed to a big deal on the hostages; lotsa folks have been pointing out for a long time that Israel’s relatively generous hostage policy could be turned into a major strategic liability.
• What to expect when you’re expecting a massive airstrike.
• Drezner on the Washington Post’s big series on economic sanctions.
• “Obesity” and body composition in the US military.