Russian Naval Power Has No Future
By 
My latest at National Security Journal:
Russia’s biggest maritime problem now and throughout history has been geography. Despite its immense size, Russia lacks good, accessible ports that can be used year-round to project power. Indeed, Russia’s fleets have historically been incapable of supporting one another during wartime.
The Ukraine War has exacerbated these difficulties to a near-fatal degree. As long as hostilities continue (and this could be for a good long while), naval forces can neither deploy into or out of the Black Sea; it has effectively become a prison for the Russian Navy. The Russian Baltic Fleet undoubtedly has the same sense of being under detention, especially since the accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO. Helsinki’s accession has also undoubtedly caused deployability headaches for the Northern Fleet, which operates from bases in easy range of Finnish reconnaissance.
The situation of the Pacific Fleet is somewhat better, but it is badly outclassed by the Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN) and the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF). In any open hostilities against the NATO alliance, the Russian Navy would find itself in a dire situation.
By the way, I don’t know Evan Gershkovich but I want him on my side in a fight:
I am actually just a tiny bit surprised that Putin didn’t take him up on the request.