MLB considering rule requiring starting pitchers to go at least six full innings

Mickey Lolich, who threw 376 innings and 29 complete games in 1971

This at least on its face seems like a pretty radical attempt to reverse the evolution of the game:

Now that the league has successfully sped up the action on the field, it now wants to extend the amount of time starting pitchers spend on the mound. According to ESPN, the commissioner’s office is considering a six-inning minimum for starters with the purpose of “restoring the prominence of the starting pitcher and reducing the prevalence of pitching injuries.”

Baseball’s analytics revolution changed the way pitchers are deployed, but it also diminished the stature of the starting pitcher, as data revealed that the effectiveness of starters decreased after facing a lineup twice in a game. Teams introduced “openers” and “bullpen games” to further minimize the importance of a starter in the pursuit of wins.

Manfred wants to make the starting pitcher a central figure again by requiring a minimum of six innings. An early exit would be allowed if the starter has done the following: 1) thrown 100 or more pitches, 2) allowed four or more runs or 3) gets injured.

I haven’t thought about this at all, but I’ll throw out a couple of observations.

(1) This is a far more radical rule change than the pitch clock, which was a modest tweak to the rules that had a big immediate payoff. I wonder to what extent that outcome has emboldened Manfred here?

(2) The exceptions to the rule are such that they cover pretty much every situation in which a starter would have been pulled before the seventh inning a generation ago. In the 1970s and even the 1980s it certainly would have been considered very strange to pull a starter before the seventh if he hadn’t thrown 100 pitches or given up more than three runs or gotten hurt. I mean I’m sure it happened occasionally, but I imagine it was quite rare.

(3) On the other hand, one extremely consistent trend throughout baseball history has been the declining work load for starting pitchers. This pattern has held for 150 years now, so a rule change to try to reverse it is in one sense fighting against the whole history of the game.

As I said I haven’t really thought about it, as I hadn’t heard anything about such a proposal before today, so I’m interested in your takes.