Kamalamentum

It was a month ago today that Joe let Kamala play, and the results have been striking:

According to Morris RFK Jr. dropping out helps Trump but only very marginally, and RFK’s endorsement doesn’t exactly help Trump/Vance duck the “these guys are weird” charges.

Perhaps even more striking is the state-by-state data:

Just an entirely different race, and the idea that anything like this would have happened had Biden not stepped down is about as implausible as a counterfactual can be.

The other takeaway here, of course, it that this is still a very close election, particularly given that Trump will obviously not accept a loss. The transformation of the polls is reason for optimism, not complacency — as far as I can tell, the Harris team seems to understand this.