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Money for nothing

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The inflation rate fell more than expected, with the year over year rate now at exactly three per cent. (Prices actually declined slightly in June). Three per cent is less than the average inflation rate over the past 60 years, although it’s higher than the average inflation rate over the previous decade, which seems to have created a new baseline expectation in the public in this regard.

Other reasons why inflation remains a political problem for the Democrats’ election prospects, despite the fact that it is now low in formal historical terms:

(1) People don’t care very much about the year to year figure, they care that prices have risen a lot overall over the past three years, which is true. It takes a stretch of low inflation for the high inflation of 2021-2022 to get baked in to the psychological baseline.

(2) People consider high prices to be a bad thing that they don’t deserve, while high wages (wage growth has been outstripping price growth for the past 18 months or so) are something that happens because they’ve earned those raises.

(3) Nostalgia works in an odd way in this context in particular. We remember how low prices “used” to be, but we forget what we were getting paid at the time. Also, relatedly, there’s something about low nominal prices that seem to carry some sort of objective meaning, that makes no sense in rational economic terms. I noted a few weeks ago that I was paying eight dollars for a gourmet burger in Ann Arbor in the mid-1980s, and that somehow at the time didn’t seem like a lot, even though at present a similar hamburger would cost seven times less for me, given subsequent changes in both nominal prices and my nominal wages.

(4) The media narrative that inflation is a bad problem at the moment is something that turns more slowly than an oil tanker, for complicated reasons that include among many other things the fact that a lot of people who own national media outlets want to see their taxes go down even further.

There are no doubt other reasons as well.

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