First post-assassination attempt post-RNC post -Biden withdrawal Times Siena poll shows big shift toward Democrats
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Vice President Kamala Harris begins a 103-day sprint for the presidency in a virtual tie with former President Donald J. Trump, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, as her fresh candidacy was quickly reuniting a Democratic Party that had been deeply fractured over President Biden.
Just days after the president abandoned his campaign under pressure from party leaders, the poll showed Democrats rallying behind Ms. Harris as the presumptive nominee, with only 14 percent saying they would prefer another option. An overwhelming 70 percent of Democratic voters said they wanted the party to speedily consolidate behind her rather than engage in a more competitive and drawn-out process.
Her swift reassembling of the Democratic coalition appeared to help narrow Mr. Trump’s significant advantage over Mr. Biden of only a few weeks ago. Ms. Harris was receiving 93 percent support from Democrats, the same share that Mr. Trump was getting from Republicans.
Overall, Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters in a head-to-head match. That is a marked improvement for Democrats when compared to the Times/Siena poll in early July that showed Mr. Biden behind by six percentage points, in the aftermath of the poor debate performance that eventually drove him from the race.
This is only one poll (although an especially well-regarded one by meta-polling data analysts), but it’s extremely encouraging.
First, consider that in comparison to Biden and Trump, Kamala Harris remains largely unknown to most voters, beyond the most obvious demographic facts about her, and beyond the most crucial fact that she’s not Donald Trump or Joe Biden.
Second, Harris hadn’t even begun to campaign or advertise when this poll was taken. By contrast, whatever post-assassination attempt/RNC convention bump Trump was going to get is represented here.
Third, LET’S FUCKING GO.
I expect a big further shift towards Harris after the convention, and a total meltdown from Trump as a result (I mean more than his normal meltdowns, which is kind of like “a really bad game for Zach Wilson.”)