Facts don’t do what I want them to

This is from a big YouGov pdf release today.

Arizona: Trump +7 Georgia Trump +4  Michigan Trump +2 North Carolina Trump +4  Nevada Trump +4 Pennsylvania Trump +3 Wisconsin Trump +5

That’s all the swing states, or at least the swing states last time around: Biden won all of these except North Carolina.

I guess it must be a terrible year for Democrats.

Same poll:

Arizona Gallego + 8 Michigan Slotkin +9 Nevada Rosen +7 Pennsylvania Casey +12  Wisconsin Baldwin +7

So Gallego is running 15 points ahead of Biden, as is Casey. Slotkin, who isn’t even an incumbent, is running 11 points ahead, as is Rosen. Baldwin is running 12 points ahead.

Meanwhile:

Yeah, I have no idea if Harris could do better. I do know that if the election had been held before Saturday’s assassination attempt, it’s likely that Trump would have won the Electoral College by a lot, and probably the popular vote as well. That’s what the curated consensus of the polls continues to show, and Trump outperformed the polls in both 2016 and 2020. You can chant “Dobbs” until you’re blue in the face, but that’s beginning to sound suspiciously like demands to unskew polls, that are systematically biased against Joe Biden for reasons.

That attempt has put the kibosh for the time being on public pressure from down ballot vulnerable Democrats on Biden to withdraw. Whether it will do so for the reminder of the time before the delegates vote — the schedule for which remains somehow very much up in the air at the moment; it could be as soon as a week from now, depending on what rules the DNC ultimately adopts — remains to be seen.