Can’t you hear me knocking

One reason that the Trump’s substantial advantage in swing states has vanished over the last week is apparently that voters do no associate Harris with the inflation from the first two years of the Biden administration nearly as strongly:

The polling, shared first with Semafor, found Harris starting the general election with some big strengths on social issues. Asked what issue they associated with Harris, 52% said “abortion and birth control,” a sign that the vice president’s years-long campaigning against the Dobbs decision had sunk in.

Harris was weaker on public safety issues, with 32% of voters citing “crime” and 29% citing “immigration and the border” when asked for an association. Fifty percent of independents worried that Harris would let migrants cross the border illegally. Latino voters, narrowly, trusted Trump more than Harris on immigration, continuing a pattern that showed up in post-2021 polling that tested President Biden in a rematch with Trump.

Republicans have already promised to focus on those issues as they work to define Harris. But Blueprint found an opening for the vice president on economic issues. Harris and Trump were tied, 50-50, when voters were asked which candidate would do a better job “bringing down prices” on goods and services.

“The upside for Harris is huge: voters do not hold her accountable for Biden’s perceived failures on inflation, and she can run hard on economic messaging,” said Roth Smith.

This is presumably what is allowing the fundamentals that have been favorable Senate Dems to finally start showing up further up the ballot. to Harris is also in a much better position to increase the salience of abortion rights, the best issue for Democrats — Biden was fine on the policy but was never particularly comfortable discussing it even before his speaking abilities declined over the past year.

It’s just an opportunity, not a done deal, but the Democrats are clearly in far better shape than they were 2 weeks ago. And Harris’s excellent speech today — emphasizing liberal positions on reproductive rights and healthcare, taking more moderate positions on immigration, taunting Trump for not being willing to debate a woman — shows that she understands the challenge.

To return to a theme from earlier today, we’re into Week 2 and Trump has absolutely no idea how to message against Harris:

Trump: You know who’s plain weird? She’s plan weird. She’s a weird person. pic.twitter.com/OcqHywOdWI— Acyn (@Acyn) July 31, 2024

“I know you are but what am I?” yeah good luck with that. Absolutely no juice at all. Speaking of which, this from Matt Taibbi’s formerly sane podcast partner might be the hardest cope I’ve ever seen:

What would we be without wishful thinking? (Relying on Hersh deep into his “permanent exclusives” era is a nice touch.)