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The ratio of comments for and against Biden withdrawing for another candidate in the comments section at this blog might lead someone to believe that the question of whether Biden should stand down in favor of Harris was one that pitted party elites and high-level donors against the rank-and-file of the party. This is absolutely not true. This is an issue on which there is a high level agreement between all levels of the party:

Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say President Joe Biden should withdraw from the presidential race and let his party nominate a different candidate, according to a new poll, sharply undercutting his post-debate claim that “average Democrats” are still with him even if some “big names” are turning on him.

The new survey by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, conducted as Biden works to salvage his candidacy two weeks after his debate flop, also found that only about 3 in 10 Democrats are extremely or very confident that he has the mental capability to serve effectively as president, down slightly from 40% in an AP-NORC poll in February.

This data has to be one of the top factors motivating Obama, Pelosi, Schumer et al. It is just not very plausible that Biden can recover in the polls if this is how he’s viewed by the majority of ordinary voters in his own party.

This is a good summary of the state of play:

Where things stand:

1. Top Dems who believed even a week ago Biden would stay now believe he’ll go.

2. House and Senate Dems have lost faith in his ability to win and there’s no way to win them back. His calls and interviews have hurt him badly. Confirmed debate wasn't a…— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) July 18, 2024

#2 is the really key point here. I’ve already discussed Biden’s evident inability to persuade other elected officials in the party that he has a viable plan to recover. More to the point, these are the people in the best position to know whether Biden’s disastrous debate performance was an aberration or strong evidence that Biden’s public appearances (especially those that would require extemporaneous speaking) were being highly limited for a reason. I certainly have no basis to contest their conclusions, particularly since they’re consistent with what we outsiders can see.

#3 is also not a minor point. Biden is not going to make up a swing state deficit if he’s being heavily outspent by Trump, and persuading donors that you’re a viable candidate is a non-negotiable job requirement for a presidential candidate. Admittedly, if donors were opposed to the preferences of a majority of Democratic voters or elected officials, this would be a very difficult and disturbing quandary. Fortunately, that’s not the case — the majority of all levels of the party are on the same page here.

The path forward among the selection of suboptimal options at this point is pretty obvious at this point, and I have a high level of confidence that Biden will do the right thing.