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You know who would run away with this election? My Canadian girlfriend

By Paul Campos

On June 10, 2024

At 3:09 pm

In General

1683 Views

She’s so awesome you wouldn’t even believe it.

If I'd told you 10 years ago a president would seek re-election at 81 despite a supermajority of Americans having concerns about his age, and then we'd hit 8% inflation for 2 years, you wouldn't be surprised he was an underdog for reelection. You'd be surprised it was even close!— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 10, 2024

If your supposed expertise is statistics, it seems germane that you don’t post false numbers. Inflation on a year over year basis hit 8% or higher for exactly seven months of the Biden presidency, from March through September of 2022, not “two years.” It did not hit 8% in any calendar year.

But Nate’s just getting started:

"Trump should drop out too!" is such as weird dunk on people who are pointing out that Biden has big challenges.

Yes, Trump should drop out! I agree! Biden would lose by 7 points, but I agree, the Republican Party and the country would be better served by a different nominee. https://t.co/QZMgcisTIA— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 10, 2024

I get this is Twitter so I guess arguments don’t count or have to make any sense, but there’s not a shred of evidence that the Republican party, which is currently a cult of personality under the total and absolute control of one Donald J. Trump, could field a competitive presidential candidate, let alone one who would win in a landslide — a GOP candidate winning by seven points would probably translate to 400+ electoral votes — if the head of the cult were to drop out now. That’s not usually what happens when cult leaders resign from the head of their cults, which history shows again and again is something that happens (checks notes) approximately “never.”

Oh you think we’re done here? Not by a damn sight:

What's clearer IMO is that Democrats would have been better served if Biden had decided a year ago not to seek a second term, which would have allowed them to have some semblance of a primary process and give voters a say among the many popular Democrats across the country.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 10, 2024

There are so many popular Democrats, especially when compared to Joe Biden (I don’t know if you’ve heard but he’s 81), and yet none of them chose to run against him in the Democratic primary, which is why there was no “semblance of a primary process,” meaning that none of these super popular Democrats, who would have surely defeated Joe Biden because they’re so popular, were in that process, for some very mysterious reason. Now what reason could that be?