Help me Ariana Grande, you’re my only hope

These are some really ugly numbers. They don’t make any sense on a lot of levels — most notably in that apparently a whole bunch of people are saying they’re going to vote for the Democrat for the Senate in their state, but also for Trump, which is totally insane, obviously — but they do look better if you only look at likely voters instead of registered voters.

This part just . . , I’ve got nothing right now:

The sense that Mr. Biden would do little to improve the nation’s fortunes has helped erode his standing among young, Black and Hispanic voters, who usually represent the foundation of any Democratic path to the presidency. The Times/Siena polls found that the three groups wanted fundamental changes to American society, not just a return to normalcy, and few believed that Mr. Biden would make even minor changes that would be good for the country.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60 percent of their vote in 2020. Mr. Trump also wins more than 20 percent of Black voters — a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

If you look at the crosstabs you’ll probably just bang your head against a solid object: For example 37% of respondents say Trump is most responsible for the SCOTUS overturning Roe, while 24% say Biden is.

I continue to believe that when people actually focus on the election, the notion of re-electing Trump is going to be too much for enough swing voters that the election won’t be that close, and that a trifecta for the Dems remains very much in play, despite the grim Senate map. For example:

With less than six months to go until the election, there is still time for an improving economy to lift Mr. Biden’s standing. Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, Black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets underway.

This is the Ariana Grande vote in its Platonic form (thanks to Burke305 for flagging it).

But obviously there’s no room for the slightest complacency, and if this sort of poll is good for anything, it’s to quash any such feelings in anybody who still cares about the future of this country.