Iran Responds
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Drones are headed towards Israel:
Iran launched a broad aerial attack from its territory toward Israel on Saturday, in retaliation for a deadly Israeli airstrike in early April on the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, the Israeli and Iranian militaries said.
The attack, while expected, threatened to open a volatile new chapter in the long-running shadow war between Iran and Israel, marking a significant escalation in hostilities between the two regional foes.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps said in a statement broadcast on state television that it had launched “dozens of drones and missiles” toward Israel from Iran “in reaction to the Zionist regime’s crimes.”
Israeli intelligence confirmed that dozens of drones and cruise missiles had been sent aloft and were heading toward Israel from Iran and Iraq, according to two Israeli officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military intelligence. They were expected to hit targets in the Golan Heights and an Israeli air force base in the Negev Desert, the officials said.
Expect the drones to arrive in waves over the next few hours. Israeli air defenses are impressive and will likely attrite the drones, but if experience from Ukraine is any guide we can expect them to be quite accurate. Unclear at this point what mix of military and civilian targets the Iranians have chosen. This feels to me to be an escalation beyond Israel’s actions of April 1 (bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus) and I wouldn’t be surprised if Israel feels compelled to respond. In which case… bad. All bad.
… it occurs to me that Iran may be counting on Israeli (and US) air defenses to shoot down such a large number of the launched drones that the result is effectively de-escalatory. Israel may not feel compelled to respond in kind to an attack that, while massive in scope, ends up not doing very much damage.