What is the Actual Third Party Threat to Biden?
I think there’s a point here–the No Labels clowns ain’t going to do anything and Joe Manchin has received enough attention for now it seems. But there is a singular type of threat to Biden from the left and it is a combination of his policies toward Palestine and the importance of very specific purple states to the election. Basically, it’s that Michigan has a large Islamic population that is very angry at the president and Wisconsin is so close that it Biden must win Madison by a lot to win that state. If Cornel West or someone like him can get on the ballot, it could throw those states to Trump.
Now, I want to caution everyone here–I don’t think it’s helpful to state how stupid these voters are. That’s even if they are being stupid. I mean, I agree with everyone that you need a holistic view of the election and that there are two realistic choices. And of course as bad as Biden is on Israel/Palestine, Trump is even worse. But we also have to recognize something else, which is that a whole lot of voters–and they lean all ways and include most centrists–are pretty clueless about how politics work and also want to remain clueless about it so they don’t have to take responsibility for their actions. So that’s a tough one. This is how you get Obama-Trump voters, basically. So you can say they are idiots all you want. But it is also the job of the candidate to produce policies that voters favor. And in those very specific contexts of Michigan and Wisconsin politics, Biden might be blowing it big time. Given that all that matters in American presidential politics is 7 or 8 states, it really does matter.