Election of the Day: Pakistan

Pakistan’s election today lies somewhere in the vast space between a normal, proper democratic election and the absurd exercise that just took place in Azerbaijan. For a variety of reasons, this election will fall short of any reasonable threshold of “free” or “fair”, but the outcome is not quite so pre-ordained. It’s not going particularly peacefully: in the last few days, we’ve learned that at least 24 are dead in attacks on candidate offices in Balochistan. One of the primary reasons Pakistan falls short of truly democratic elections is the persistent and fickle medding of the powerful Pakistani military. This situation is far more complicated than I time to comprehensively engage, especially as I’m late with this and results are already trickling in. The person who lingers over this election most prominently isn’t on the ballot. In 2018, former Cricket star and general rich famous handsome person Imran Khan’s new party, PTI, was swept into power, with the support of the military. Over time, the military soured on him, and a played some role in forcing a no-confidence vote that ousted him in 2022. He has subsequently been put on trial on a variety of charges, and sentenced to a great deal of time in prison, where he currently resides. In December, his party, still the largest party in Parliament, was stripped of its party status by the Supreme Court, which denied their candidates (Like India and the UK, Pakistan uses SMD, FPTP elections) the use of Cricket-based party symbol, a move that could hurt them at the margins anywhere, but could be particularly harmful in districts with low literacy rates, where the symbols provide crucial information for many voters.

Despite these handicaps, he’s running, about as much as anyone in prison can. In fact, his supporters have been holding “virtual rallies” for PTI, using deepfake technology to show Khan giving speeches he (ostensibly) wrote, the text of which were smuggled out by his supporters. Here’s an good piece on the PTI “guerrilla campaign”:

“Within a night our team came up with the idea of setting up a portal online where users can enter in the constituency number and they would receive the name of the candidate, and their symbol,” he said.

Traditionally, election campaigns in Pakistan involve candidates and their teams holding street corner meetings, visiting constituents door to door to spread their message, and speaking to voters and supporters in large rallies.

They put up banners and posters, and distribute pamphlets with their agendas. Others, who possess more financial resources, also advertise on mainstream media including both television and print. With most institutions of the Pakistani state cracking down on them, those options have been limited for the PTI this time, say party leaders.

“We had to be nimble and think on our feet to turn this negativity around and use it as strength,” says Taimur Jhagra, a senior PTI leader, who is contesting for a provincial seat from Peshawar, the capital of the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the party has been in power since 2013.

“When my posters were torn apart in a neighbourhood in Peshawar, I made a video with those torn posters, and told my team to upload it on our social media platforms and let the torn posters stay in place to let them speak for themselves,” Jhagra told Al Jazeera.

….

Another PTI leader, who requested anonymity due to security fears, is contesting for a national assembly seat from Lahore. He said his campaign team has relied on WhatsApp to engage with constituents.

“We have a channel where we can share information and spread our messaging. Using WhatsApp, we hold short, quick meetings at somebody’s house and disperse quickly,” he added.

Technology journalist Ramsha Jahangir says that Khan and his team have always used social media, as it helps underscore the message that he is “accessible” to the average citizen.

The person considered most likely to be the next prime minister is Nawaz Sharif, a man who has previously served as PM from 1990-1993, 1997-1999, and 2013-2017. Sharif is a more conventional conservative than Khan, whose particular version of populism and basis of support is trickier to classify on a left/right spectrum. He was removed from office by the Supreme Court ostensibly over revelations of him and his family’s vast undisclosed wealth in the Panama Papers. He travelled to London for medical treatment in 2019 and stayed there, making him officially an absconder from justice. An Islamabad high court acquitted him in late 2023, easing his path for a 4th turn.

We’re a few hours away from some official projections. I’m seeing some reports that the independent candidates of the formerly PTI are doing better than expected, which may complicate Sharif’s return to power. PTI candidates appear to be leading in a majority of seats with reported results, and both Sharif and his (also former PM) brother are not currently winning their seats. This could raise some interesting questions about what the military will tolerate. We’ll find out soon enough.