Avdiivka

Things are not going well at Avdiivka:

The Ukrainian army still controls Avdiivka, or what’s left of the eastern city in the midst of a withering Russian assault, but the situation is critical.

‘”The enemy is pressing from all directions. There is not a single part of our city that is more or less calm,” Mayor Vitaly Barabash told state media.

Ukraine’s Army General Staff claims Russian troops are trying to surround Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka, but that the defenders are holding on.

However, the Ukrainian open-source analytical project Deep State, as well as soldiers and officers on the ground, described the situation on Thursday as “critical and chaotic.”

“Russians are trying to break into the city. Their subversive groups occasionally enter the outskirts of Avdiivka but are rebuffed by the defense forces. The route leading to the city is bombarded by aircraft and artillery, but the connection is functioning,” Ukrainian army officer Dmytro Lazutkin told POLITICO.

“If the occupiers manage to break into the high-rise district, urban battles are inevitable. Then it will partially resemble Bakhmut,” Lazutkin added.

Of course it’s always hard to frame this in context; Russian losses have been severe and, contrary to popular opinion, Russia is actually capable of running out of troops and equipment. But nevertheless it seems to me that something needs to change for the Ukrainians. I certainly don’t have any authoritative opinions about the Zaluzhny-Zelensky split, but it’s hard for me to argue with the idea that it’s well past time for Ukraine to engage in a full mobilization. Ukraine is absolutely NOT out of potential soldiers, but Zelensky has been hesistant to conscript younger men out of demographic concerns and considerations of domestic popularity.

Narrative notwithstanding, Ukraine still has a path to some kind of victory in this war. Western Europe continues to float the Ukrainian economy and supply some categories of military equipment, and the Biden administration has also managed to find pathways for the delivery of arms. That said (and I’ll have more on this later) if a plausible cease-fire was put on the table I think the Ukrainian government should pay attention; Russia can continue fighting like this for a long time even as it increasingly breaks Russia’s demographics and economy.