Election of Yesterday/Today: Taiwan

Due to my failure to think about time zones properly, this one didn’t get written until after the result. The current ruling Democratic People’s Party, will remain in power. Their presidential candidate, the current vice president, William Lai Ching-te, has won the election, giving the ruling Democratic People’s Party, a center-left (Taiwan) nationalist party, a third term, and keeping Kuomintang, the party of Sun Yat-Sen, Chiang Kai-shek, and 38 years of one party authoritarian rule, out of power. On the legislative side, the new Taiwan People’s Party, whose presidential candidate came in third at an impressive 26%, appears to be in a kingmaker position: DPP is projected to drop to 51/113 seats, one behind KMT, with the TPP holding 8 seats. The TPP ran as cooperative centrists, in general and on the Beijing question, with their presidential candidate, former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je, arguing the DPP is too close to Washington and the KMT too close to Beijing, touting his status as “the only candidate acceptable to both the Washington and Beijing.” At least one political scientists suspects the TPP likely pulls more voters away from the DPP than the KMT, and holds positions that place them closer to the DPP. They did enter into talks last year about forming a broad opposition coalition with the KMT, but those talks were not successful. These facts would seem to suggest some kind of cooperation, either via coalition or some kind of confidence and supply arrangement, with the DPP is the most likely outcome.

Western coverage of this campaign has emphasized the geopolitical implications a great deal: this is not the result Beijing wanted, as Lai has emphasized Taiwan’s sovereignty and independence, while the KMT has talked about restarting negotiations and deepening trade ties with mainland China. Beijing’s intimidation tactics have included flyovers and spy balloons:

A surge in sightings of balloons from China flying over Taiwan has drawn the attention of the island’s military and struck some experts as a calculatedly ambiguous warning to voters weeks before its presidential election.

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has reported occasional sightings of balloons floating from China since last month, and a surge in recent days, according to the ministry’s daily tally of Chinese military activities near the island. Official Taiwanese accounts about balloons were previously very sporadic.

The recent balloons have mostly stayed off Taiwan’s coast. On Monday, however, one flew across the island, according to the ministry’s descriptions of their paths. Of four spotted on Tuesday, three flew over Taiwan, and two passed through to the island’s east side, facing the Pacific Ocean. Another flew over the island on Wednesday.

The Taiwanese reports also noted some of the balloons’ proximity to the island’s military bases. Of the four reported on Tuesday, three were first detected 120 to 184 miles from the Ching Chuan Kang Air Base in the city of Taichung. Taiwan’s defense ministry declined to specify how close to the base they may have flown.

The Taiwanese nationals I know here have found this all pretty alarming, but are unwavering in their continued support of DPP, on the view that a KMT victory as a result of Beijing’s threats would spell the beginning of the end of Taiwan’s democracy. While the substantially increased support for the TPP muddies the waters somewhat, that perspective appears to have carried the day.