What The News Stories On The Polls Aren’t Telling You
By If Donald Trump is convicted, current polls say he’s likely to lose the presidential election.
Norman Eisen, Celinda Lake and Anat Shenker-Osorio dig down in the tabs to find that, if the question has been asked, Donald Trump loses significant amounts of Republican support. Like seven points relative to Joe Biden. Like several swing states. Like the election. (gift link)
Why do the polls register a sharp decline for Mr. Trump if he is convicted? Our analysis — including focus groups we have conducted and viewed — shows that Americans care about our freedoms, especially the freedom to cast our votes, have them counted and ensure that the will of the voters prevails. They are leery of entrusting the Oval Office to someone who abused his power by engaging in a criminal conspiracy to deny or take away those freedoms.
Imagine that.
The article includes the usual caveats that polls at this point may or may not mean anything, but the relative change from the basic question Who you gonna vote for? seems significant. And it’s consistent across a number of polls.