But muh vibes

Let me praise this story, which is rare among the political press in pointing out that 1)the economy is in far better shape than most experts and pundits were predicting, and 2)despite another expert near consensus inflation was tamed without mass unemployment:

After two years of relentless pressureover everything from sky-high inflation to a looming recession, the head of the Federal Reserve was asked this month what he does for fun.

“For me, a big, big party — and I mean, this is really as fun as it gets — is a really good inflation report,” Jerome H. Powell said before a crowd at Spelman College. He flashed a smile and laughed.

For an official who typically sticks to a tight script, the quip was downrightjubilant. But it also reflected a subtle mood shift from the central bank — and from a leader who feels finally freed to crack a joke in the first place, however restrained.

As 2023 winds to a close, Powell and his colleagues are far from declaring victory on inflation. They routinely caution that their actions could be thwarted by any number of threats, from war in the Middle East to China’s economic slowdown. Americans are upset about the high costs of rent, groceries and other basics, which aren’t going back to pre-pandemic levels. The White House, too, is quick to emphasize that much work remains.

Yet the economy is ending the year in a remarkably better position than almost anyone on Wall Street or in mainstream economics had predicted, having bested just about all expectations time and again. Inflation has dropped to 3.1 percent, from a peak of 9.1. The unemployment rate is at a hot 3.7 percent, and the economy grew at a healthy clip in the most recent quarter. The Fed is probably finished hiking interest rates and is eyeing cuts next year. Financial markets are at or near all-time highs, and the S&P 500 could hit a new record this week, too.

I hope a political scientist is doing a content analysis of how much positive coverage of bull markets there was under the Trump and Biden administrations; I know how I’m betting. I personally don’t think the Dow Index is an especially good indicator of economic health, but it was certainly widely treated as such when Trump was in office.

Low unemployment, however, is great — for most people, at least, if not upper-middle-class people who are addicted to cheap help.

Economic crises that started with the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and continued through an inflation spike that the bank and the White House were slow to recognize.

The Fed and the White House fought inflation on their own distinct tracks using entirely different tools. But now, the central bankers, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and President Biden’s economic brain trust are cautiously pointing out that they have been vindicated by data and developments dismissed as virtually impossible until quite recently. This month, Biden’s typically staid treasury secretary gave an unusually direct rebuke, telling reporters that economists who predicted that lower inflation would require widespread layoffs were now “eating their words.”

Call it the most polite revenge tour Washington has ever seen.

OK, but remember when under Trump a steak and lobster dinner for 4 delivered to your front door was really cheap? Surely you do! Are you saying I’m making that up? Anyway, we need Trump to come in and institute a large across-the-board tariff, kick a lot of agricultural workers out of the country, and pass some more debt-funded tax cuts. That will definitely make things cheaper, right?

How it started How it’s going pic.twitter.com/6AWwmFPbez— James Medlock (@jdcmedlock) December 17, 2023